The European Union is poised for a crucial electoral event as up to 450 million citizens across its 27 member states prepare to vote between June 6 and 9, 2024. These elections will determine the composition of the European Parliament, the world’s only directly elected transnational assembly, which holds significant power in shaping EU legislation and policy across diverse areas including migration, the rule of law, social policy, environment, security, consumer rights, and the economy.
Significance of the 2024 Elections
This year’s election is especially noteworthy as it marks the first such event since Brexit and comes amid projections of significant gains for far-right and anti-establishment parties. Polls suggest that far-right parties could secure leading positions in nine countries, such as Austria, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium, and strong placements in others like Germany and Spain. This potential shift has sparked debates about its implications for the EU’s future direction.
Institutional Framework of the EU
The European Parliament, in conjunction with the Council and the Commission, forms the core institutional framework of the EU. It shares legislative power with the Council, shaping and approving regulations and directives proposed by the Commission. Additionally, the Parliament plays a pivotal role in defining the EU’s financial priorities, approving its multi-annual budget, and electing the Commission President and the College of Commissioners.
Political Group Dynamics
Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) are elected from national parties but typically align with like-minded transnational political groups within the Parliament. The largest groups have traditionally been the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D). However, the anticipated rise of right-wing groups like Identity and Democracy (ID) and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) could substantially alter the Parliament’s composition and influence.
Potential Policy Shifts
A significant right-wing surge could profoundly impact the EU’s policy agenda, especially regarding the Green Deal and foreign policy towards Ukraine. Right-wing parties have expressed strong opposition to the Green Deal, advocating for less stringent environmental regulations—a stance that has resonated with farmers and consumers facing high costs. Furthermore, an increased far-right presence could complicate the EU’s unified support for Ukraine against Russian aggression, given the pro-Kremlin tendencies of some right-wing factions.
Uncertain Impact on Policy Trajectory
Despite these potential challenges, it remains uncertain how much the far-right surge will alter the EU’s overall policy trajectory. The EPP, S&D, and the centrist Renew group are projected to maintain a majority, potentially preserving their agenda-setting power. However, internal divisions and new alliances could complicate legislative processes.
Influence on the European Commission Presidency
The composition of the next Parliament could also influence the selection of the European Commission President. Current President Ursula von der Leyen, known for her ambitious climate and digital agendas, may face challenges in securing a second term if far-right and Eurosceptic MEPs gain significant sway.
Addressing Voter Concerns
As the election approaches, mainstream centrist parties are urged to address voter concerns more effectively to counter the far-right’s rise. The outcome of this election could indeed be a defining moment for the European Union, shaping its policies and global role for the next five years.
