Saudi Arabia has abandoned its pursuit of a comprehensive defence treaty with the United States, initially sought in exchange for normalizing relations with Israel. Instead, the kingdom is focusing on a more modest military cooperation agreement, as reported by two Saudi and four Western officials.
This pivot follows Riyadh’s earlier willingness to moderate its stance on Palestinian statehood, suggesting that Israel’s public commitment to a two-state solution could pave the way for normalisation. However, escalating anger across Saudi Arabia and the broader Middle East over Israel’s actions in Gaza has led Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to reassert that recognition of Israel hinges on concrete steps toward a Palestinian state.
Netanyahu’s Hurdles in Securing a Historic Deal
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains eager to achieve a landmark normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia. Such a deal would signal a broader acceptance of Israel in the Arab world and bolster Netanyahu’s legacy.
However, opposition within Israel poses significant obstacles. Following the October 7 attacks by Hamas, any concessions toward Palestinian statehood risk fracturing Netanyahu’s coalition. Western diplomats suggest that both Riyadh and Washington aim to finalise a scaled-back agreement before President Joe Biden’s term ends in January 2025.
Key Features of the Proposed Agreement
The proposed military cooperation agreement, while less ambitious than a mutual defence treaty, includes:
- Expanded Joint Exercises: Enhanced regional threat preparedness, particularly against Iran.
- Defence Collaboration: Partnerships between US and Saudi defence firms with measures to prevent Chinese involvement.
- Technology Investments: Saudi funding for advanced systems, including drone defence.
- US Presence in Saudi Arabia: Increased logistical, training, and cybersecurity support, along with the potential deployment of a Patriot missile battalion.
This agreement stops short of obliging US forces to defend Saudi Arabia in the event of foreign aggression, a provision Riyadh initially sought.
Challenges and Unresolved Issues
Efforts to secure a mutual defence treaty have faced several stumbling blocks:
- Nuclear Enrichment Rights: Saudi Arabia’s refusal to sign a 123 Agreement, which would restrict its ability to enrich uranium, has stalled civil nuclear cooperation talks.
- Human Rights Concerns: Disagreements over human rights provisions have further complicated negotiations.
A senior Saudi official confirmed that a broader treaty was “95% complete,” but Riyadh opted for an alternative due to the infeasibility of achieving normalisation with Israel at this time.
The Trump Factor
The diplomatic landscape could shift further with Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House. Known for his strong ties to the Saudi crown prince, Trump’s previous peace plan—dubbed the “Deal of the Century”—excluded provisions for Palestinian sovereignty.
Arab and Palestinian officials express concerns that Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner might persuade Riyadh to support a revised plan, prioritising Israeli interests while offering superficial gestures toward Palestinian statehood.
The Palestinian Issue: A Core Sticking Point
Saudi Arabia remains steadfast in its advocacy for a Palestinian state, with East Jerusalem as its capital, aligning with international agreements and UN resolutions. Saudi officials argue that sidelining Palestinian self-determination will perpetuate regional instability.
At a recent Arab and Islamic summit, Crown Prince Mohammed condemned Israel’s Gaza offensive as “collective genocide,” underscoring Riyadh’s commitment to the Palestinian cause.
A Deal Deferred, Not Denied?
While the Gaza war and domestic pressures have delayed progress, diplomats suggest that Saudi-Israeli normalisation could resurface under a different Israeli government or after regional tensions subside.
Middle East expert Fawaz Gerges speculates that Trump could broker a ceasefire in Gaza to facilitate normalisation, leveraging Saudi Arabia as the “big prize” in US-Israeli relations.
For now, the Biden administration continues to pursue a limited agreement, with time running short before a new administration takes office. Whether this interim deal materializes or awaits Trump’s potential return remains uncertain, but the stakes for Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the US are undeniably high.
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