As Switzerland prepares to host a global summit aimed at forging a path to peace in Ukraine, Pakistan finds itself in a quandary over whether to attend. The country has maintained a neutral stance on Russia’s war on Ukraine, and with significant stakes involving Ukrainian weapons and Russian oil, the decision is complex. Analysts suggest that Pakistan’s participation might also be influenced by China’s decision to boycott the summit, aligning with Russia’s absence. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry confirmed receiving an invitation for the two-day summit in Lucerne, starting on June 15. However, the decision to attend remains undecided. “Still under discussion,” said Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson. More than 160 countries have been invited, with at least 90 confirming participation. The summit, requested by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, will notably exclude Russia and China. Tughral Yamin, a former military official and senior research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies Islamabad (IPSI), emphasized the importance of Pakistan’s participation due to its defense ties with Ukraine and emerging energy ties with Russia.
“Pakistan must attend the summit. It has stakes in the war. We have strong defense relations with Ukraine and are trying to build ties with Russia, which can provide us oil,” Yamin told Al Jazeera. Fahd Humayun, an assistant professor of political science at Tufts University, agreed, noting that attending a peace summit does not equate to taking sides in the conflict. “There is an opportunity for Pakistan to voice its stance on an important regional issue and signal its commitment to de-escalating a global conflict,” he said. Pakistan’s history with Ukraine dates back three decades, marked by significant military purchases, including tanks. Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) shows Ukraine has supplied nearly $1.6 billion worth of weapons to Pakistan until 2020. However, recent years have seen Pakistan strengthening relations with Russia. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s visit to Russia on the day the war began in February 2022 underscored this shift. Despite maintaining neutrality, reports suggest Pakistan has supplied artillery ammunition to Ukraine, facilitated by a US-mediated IMF bailout package. Pakistan has denied these claims, maintaining its neutral position.
Current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met Russian President Vladimir Putin twice in late 2022, and in April 2023, Pakistan signed a crude oil deal with Russia, receiving the first shipment two months later. This was amid Western pressure to halt Russian oil purchases. Taimur Khan, a research associate at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI), highlighted Pakistan’s opportunity to benefit from Moscow’s pivot towards Asia amidst deteriorating ties with the West. However, Taimur Khan was skeptical about the summit’s outcomes due to Russia’s absence. “The summit is based on President Zelenskyy’s peace formula, which Russia rejects. Both main parties to the conflict are not genuinely interested in peace talks due to the volatile battlefield situation,” he added.
China’s decision not to attend the summit complicates Pakistan’s choice. On May 31, China stated it would not participate, emphasizing that any international peace conference should be endorsed by both Russia and Ukraine. Mao Ning, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, stressed the need for fair and equal discussion of all peace proposals.
Pakistan’s decision should not be dictated by China’s stance, argued Taimur Khan. “If China decides not to attend for its reasons, it doesn’t mean Pakistan should follow if it doesn’t align with its interests,” he said. Humayun echoed this, suggesting that Pakistan’s non-attendance should not impact its relations with the West. “The European Union and the US should understand that countries in the Global South have their independent compulsions and prerogatives as sovereign nations,” he said.
Khan also believes that staying away from the summit will not have major economic repercussions for Pakistan, despite its need for IMF assistance, where the US has significant influence. “Pakistan desperately needs economic assistance, but non-attendance at the summit is unlikely to have major economic impacts. This summit appears to be more about political optics and muscle-flexing against Russia,” he added.
In conclusion, Pakistan’s decision on whether to attend the Ukraine peace summit in Lucerne involves balancing its strategic interests, historical ties, and geopolitical pressures. The outcome of this decision will reflect Pakistan’s approach to navigating its complex relationships with Ukraine, Russia, and China, while maintaining its neutrality in the ongoing conflict.
