The trajectory of democracy is at a crossroads, presenting both significant challenges and potential avenues for progress. Recent data paints a sobering picture, revealing a concerning regression in the level of democracy worldwide, reminiscent of levels observed in the 1980s. Against this backdrop, it’s crucial to dissect key trends shaping the state of democracy today and identify potential pathways forward.
The Decline in Democracy:
One of the most pressing issues facing the world today is the marked decline in democratic governance. Alarmingly, the average person’s access to democratic freedoms has regressed to levels not seen since the 1980s, signaling a troubling reversal of progress. This decline is particularly acute in regions such as Eastern Europe and South and Central Asia, where democratic institutions are facing sustained challenges to their legitimacy and effectiveness. However, amidst this gloomy outlook, Latin America and the Caribbean emerge as beacons of hope, with democracy levels on the rise, especially in larger nations demonstrating robust democratic resilience.
Trends of Regime Change:
The global landscape is in a state of flux, with regime change unfolding in 60 countries worldwide. Of particular concern is the pervasive wave of autocratization, with 42 nations experiencing a troubling erosion of democratic principles. This phenomenon has significant implications for over 2.8 billion people globally, with India accounting for a substantial portion of this demographic. While there are tentative signs that the pace of autocratization may be slowing, caution is warranted, as the underlying drivers of this trend remain largely unresolved. Conversely, democratization efforts are underway in 18 nations, albeit impacting a smaller portion of the global population, with Brazil emerging as a key protagonist in this narrative.
Autocratizing Countries:
The dynamics within autocratizing countries are complex and multifaceted. Shockingly, 28 of the 42 nations currently undergoing autocratization were democracies at the onset of this process, underscoring the vulnerability of democratic institutions to erosion. Furthermore, the undermining of electoral integrity poses a significant threat to the democratic process, with electoral management bodies in 22 autocratizing nations experiencing weakening autonomy.
Autocracies and Democracies:
Despite the global distribution of democracies and autocracies being almost evenly split, the majority of the world’s population finds itself under the governance of autocratic regimes. Notably, electoral autocracies represent a significant demographic share, highlighting the prevalence of authoritarian governance structures. This is further compounded by the erosion of key democratic components, such as freedom of expression and clean elections, in numerous countries, exacerbating concerns about democratic backsliding.
Windows to the Future:
Looking ahead, the global community must confront the challenges posed by democratic decline head-on while seizing opportunities for positive change. With 25 countries teetering on the brink of autocratization and 9 poised for democratization, the stakes are high. National elections, in particular, serve as pivotal moments that can either bolster democratic norms or entrench authoritarianism. By understanding and addressing these trends, we can collectively work towards a more equitable, just, and democratic future for all.
To read the full report made by V-Dem follow the link: https://www.v-dem.net/documents/43/v-dem_dr2024_lowres.pdf
