The assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Iran on July 31, 2024, has thrown the Middle East into a state of uncertainty. “What’s Next After Ismail Haniyeh’s Assassination?” is the crucial question as the region grapples with potential leadership changes in Hamas and the risk of escalating conflicts.

Haniyeh’s death comes at a critical juncture in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, which began on October 7, 2023. Israel’s retaliatory war on Gaza has claimed nearly 40,000 Palestinian lives and displaced millions. The assassination has cast doubt on the future of ceasefire negotiations, which were reportedly close to yielding a framework agreement.

Potential Successors:

Hamas’s Shura council is expected to meet soon to name a successor. Key contenders include:

1. Khaled Mashaal: A former leader of Hamas, Mashaal has political and diplomatic experience. He has good relations with Turkey and Qatar but has soured ties with Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah.

2. Khalil al-Hayya: A powerful figure within Hamas, al-Hayya has important international connections and good relations with the military wing, Iran, Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey.

3. Zaher Jabarin: Described as the group’s chief executive officer, Jabarin plays a crucial role in managing Hamas’s finances and has good relations with Iran and other backers.

4. Nizar Abu Ramadan: Considered close to Mashaal, Abu Ramadan had previously challenged Yahya Sinwar for the role of Gaza chief.

5. Moussa Abu Marzouk: Mashaal’s deputy and another potential candidate.

The choice of the next leader will be crucial in determining Hamas’s future direction, whether to continue military operations or pursue political compromises.

International Reactions

The assassination has prompted diverse reactions from countries across the globe:

1. Iran: Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed “severe punishment” against Israel. The government declared three days of public mourning.

2. United States: Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the US was not “aware of or involved in” Haniyeh’s death. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said war in the Middle East is not inevitable, but the US would defend Israel if attacked.

3. China: Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian expressed high concern about the incident, firmly opposing and condemning the assassination.

4. Turkey: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the killing demonstrates Israel’s lack of intention to achieve peace and warned of larger conflicts if the international community doesn’t take action.

5. Qatar: Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani questioned how mediation could succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side.

6. Japan: The deputy UN representative warned that the region could be at “the brink of an all-out war.”

7. United Kingdom: The UN ambassador called for a renewed peace process, emphasizing that long-term peace cannot be secured by military means alone.

Regional Implications

The assassination has raised fears of further regional escalation, coming just hours after a strike on a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut. These back-to-back assassinations of senior Iran-backed leaders have heightened tensions across the Middle East.

The situation puts Iran in a delicate position. While a response is expected, it must be carefully calibrated to avoid triggering a full-scale regional conflict. The assassination also complicates the diplomatic landscape, potentially hardening Hamas’s position in ceasefire talks.

Israel’s Strategy and Criticism

Some view the assassination as a power move by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war on a “victory” note, potentially boosting his low approval ratings. Critics argue that assassinating leadership figures without addressing root causes is unlikely to weaken Hamas’s resolve, capabilities, or popular support.

Future Scenarios

In the short term, Haniyeh’s body will be buried in Qatar after a funeral service in Tehran. In the longer term, analysts suggest that further escalation in regional tensions cannot be ruled out. The situation could potentially lead to:

1. A hardening of Hamas’s position in ceasefire talks
2. Increased military activities by Hamas and its allies
3. A shift in Hamas’s leadership towards more militant factions
4. Renewed diplomatic efforts by international mediators to prevent regional escalation
5. Possible retaliation from Iran or its proxies in the region

The current standoff between Israel and Iran comes just three months after they had already pushed the region close to an all-out war in April. Despite all parties stating they do not want a regional war, each cycle of attack and counterattack increases the risk of miscalculation.

“What’s Next After Ismail Haniyeh’s Assassination?” remains a question with far-reaching implications. The selection of Hamas’s new leader, the response from Iran and its allies, and the international community’s ability to prevent further escalation will shape the answer. As the region teeters on the brink, the need for diplomatic solutions and restraint has never been more critical.

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