Water Wars: How Suspending the Indus Waters Treaty Threatens Pakistan’s Survival

The recent decision by India to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan marks a critical juncture in South Asian geopolitics. Signed in 1960 under World Bank mediation, the treaty allocated water resources from the Indus River system between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. With India’s sudden move to suspend the agreement in April 2025, the consequences for Pakistan are severe and far-reaching. This article delves into the economic, agricultural, energy, and geopolitical implications of this dramatic shift.

The Indus Waters Treaty: A Vital Agreement Under Threat

The Indus Waters Treaty has been the cornerstone of water-sharing between India and Pakistan for over six decades. It provides Pakistan with control over the three western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—which account for roughly 80% of the country’s irrigation and water needs. India controls the eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—and, under the treaty, has the right to build projects that don’t significantly affect Pakistan’s share.

With India’s suspension of the treaty, this balance is under serious threat, putting Pakistan’s survival at risk. Here’s a breakdown of the potential impacts:

1. Agricultural Devastation: A Looming Food Crisis

Agriculture in Pakistan, which contributes significantly to the country’s GDP and employs a substantial portion of the population, is heavily dependent on the Indus River system. The suspension of the IWT endangers this vital water supply, which may lead to the following:

Decreased Crop Yields: Pakistan’s farmers rely on the Indus River system for irrigation, particularly in the Sindh, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces. A reduction in water flow could drastically reduce crop yields, especially for wheat, rice, and cotton—key staples for both domestic consumption and export.
Food Shortages: With diminished agricultural productivity, Pakistan could face food shortages, leading to higher reliance on expensive imports. This may trigger an inflationary cycle, making basic food commodities unaffordable for large sections of the population.
Rising Food Prices: Reduced agricultural output coupled with higher import costs could spike food prices, exacerbating inflation and leading to economic hardship for millions, especially in rural areas.

2. Energy Crisis: The Domino Effect on Pakistan’s Economy

Pakistan’s hydropower capacity is another major casualty of the IWT suspension. The western rivers are vital for generating electricity through hydropower plants such as Mangla and Tarbela. Here’s how the water crisis affects Pakistan’s energy sector:

Reduced Hydropower Output: A decrease in water flow would reduce the capacity of hydroelectric plants to generate power. Given that a significant portion of Pakistan’s electricity comes from hydroelectricity, this could exacerbate Pakistan’s already strained energy situation.
Energy Shortages: The energy shortfall could lead to frequent blackouts, which would affect industries, businesses, and households. The ripple effect would harm manufacturing sectors, slowing down economic growth.
Rising Energy Costs: To compensate for the loss in hydroelectric power, Pakistan may be forced to rely on expensive thermal energy, significantly increasing energy prices and further burdening the population.

3. Economic Strain: A Nation on the Brink

Pakistan’s economic stability could be significantly undermined by the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. A strained agricultural sector and worsening energy crisis would translate into:

Agricultural Decline: Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy. Any disruption in crop production leads to job losses, particularly in rural areas where most people rely on farming for their livelihoods.
Increased Poverty: With fewer jobs and rising food and energy prices, more people could fall below the poverty line. According to the World Bank, Pakistan already has a poverty rate of over 20%, and this crisis could push that number higher.
Strained Government Resources: As Pakistan grapples with the consequences of the water crisis, it will struggle to finance essential public services, such as healthcare and education. This could leave millions of Pakistanis vulnerable to poor health and lack of education.

4. Public Health Threats: Waterborne Diseases and Malnutrition

The suspension of the treaty poses significant risks to public health in Pakistan. A reduced water supply means that:

Waterborne Diseases: Lower water levels increase the risk of contamination in drinking water, which could lead to outbreaks of diseases such as cholera, dysentery, and typhoid.
Health Infrastructure Strain: An increase in waterborne illnesses would overwhelm Pakistan’s already overburdened healthcare system, particularly in rural areas where medical resources are scarce.
Malnutrition: Food and water shortages could lead to widespread malnutrition, particularly in vulnerable populations such as children, the elderly, and pregnant women. This could have long-term effects on the country’s overall productivity and future generation’s well-being.

5. Geopolitical Implications: Escalating Tensions and the Risk of Conflict

India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty could exacerbate existing political and military tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. The broader implications include:

Rising Military Tensions: Pakistan has warned that any interference with its water rights would be considered an act of war. Both nations have already seen skirmishes along the Line of Control (LoC), and the IWT dispute could intensify military confrontations.
Risk of Full-Scale Conflict: As both nations continue to focus on national security, there is an increased likelihood of escalatory violence, possibly leading to full-scale conflict. The water issue is increasingly becoming a flashpoint in the already volatile region.
Regional Instability: A conflict between India and Pakistan over water rights could destabilize the entire South Asian region, impacting neighboring countries like China, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh. It may also have broader implications for international relations, especially with global powers like the United States and China.

Diplomacy Over Conflict

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is a critical juncture in Indo-Pakistani relations. The potential economic, agricultural, and geopolitical consequences for Pakistan are staggering. While tensions between India and Pakistan have often been defined by territorial disputes, water resources now stand at the forefront of their conflicts.

It is crucial for both nations to come back to the negotiation table to resolve their differences in a manner that ensures equitable water distribution for both parties. Diplomatic engagement, supported by international organizations like the World Bank, could help resolve this issue and avoid disastrous consequences for the millions of people who depend on the Indus River system.

As the global climate crisis intensifies and water scarcity becomes an increasing concern, it is imperative that both nations recognize the importance of water as a shared resource, not a weapon for geopolitical leverage. The time for dialogue is now—before the ripples of this crisis turn into full-blown waves of conflict.