The recent election of reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian as Iran’s new president has raised questions about potential policy shifts within the country. However, the United States remains skeptical about any significant changes, particularly in Iran’s foreign policy and stance on key issues. This article delves into the reasons behind why US Not Expecting Policy Change from Iran, the challenges faced by President Pezeshkian, and the broader implications for Iran’s domestic and international policies.
US Skepticism About Policy Changes
State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller expressed doubts about substantial changes in Iran’s direction or policies following Pezeshkian’s election. “We have no expectation that this election will lead to a fundamental change in Iran’s direction or its policies,” Miller stated, highlighting the entrenched power of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in determining the country’s strategic course.
The US anticipates that Khamenei will continue to exert significant influence over Iran’s policy decisions, which could hinder any major shifts that President Pezeshkian might propose. This expectation stems from the historical role of the Supreme Leader in guiding Iran’s political and strategic decisions.
Economic Challenges Facing Pezeshkian
Upon his election, Masoud Pezeshkian inherited a country grappling with severe economic issues. High unemployment and inflation rates, with inflation at a staggering 40%, have left one-third of the Iranian population living in poverty. Experts remain skeptical about Pezeshkian’s ability to resolve these economic challenges, pointing to deep-seated structural problems and chronic inflation that have plagued Iran’s economy for years.
The new president’s capacity to implement effective economic reforms will be critical in determining whether he can alleviate the economic hardships faced by ordinary Iranians. However, significant improvements may require not only internal policy changes but also shifts in Iran’s international relations and economic sanctions.
Societal and Human Rights Issues
Masoud Pezeshkian has promised to address societal and human rights issues, including easing hijab restrictions and improving women’s rights. However, implementing meaningful reforms in these areas will be an uphill battle due to institutional resistance and deeply ingrained societal norms.
The death of Jina Mahsa Amini and the subsequent anti-government protests have highlighted the ongoing human rights violations and societal rifts in Iran. Pezeshkian’s ability to navigate these complex issues and push for reforms will be a significant test of his presidency.
US-Iran Diplomatic Relations
Despite Pezeshkian’s reformist stance, the US remains cautious about the prospects of resuming dialogue with Iran. While the Biden administration initially hoped to return to the 2015 nuclear deal, negotiations have stalled due to disagreements over the extent of sanctions relief. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby emphasized that the US is not ready to resume nuclear talks with Iran, stating, “We’ll see what this guy wants to get done, but we are not expecting any changes in Iranian behavior.”
The October 7 attack on US ally Israel by Hamas, which receives support from Iran, has further strained relations between the two countries. This incident underscores the complexities and challenges in improving US-Iran relations, even under new leadership.
The election of Masoud Pezeshkian as Iran’s new president has brought a mix of cautious optimism and skepticism from the international community. While his promises of reform and improved relations with the West offer hope, the entrenched power structures within Iran, particularly the influence of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, pose significant obstacles to meaningful change.
The United States remains skeptical about any major policy shifts under Pezeshkian’s leadership, particularly in areas critical to US-Iran relations. As Pezeshkian navigates the economic, societal, and diplomatic challenges facing Iran, the world will be watching closely to see if he can deliver on his promises and bring about the reforms many Iranians hope for.
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