US President Donald Trump’s recent decision to halt all foreign aid for 90 days has left Afghanistan facing a deepening humanitarian crisis. The US Agency for International Development (USAID), the world’s largest aid donor, has been a crucial financial lifeline for Afghanistan, supporting programs in food security, healthcare, and education. The aid suspension could significantly impact millions of Afghans, with severe food shortages and economic instability already gripping the nation.
According to the United Nations, Afghanistan received 43.9% of its total foreign aid from the US last year. USAID’s indirect assistance helped sustain humanitarian programs through partnerships with international organizations. With the US government now prioritizing sanctions and counterterrorism measures over development assistance, Washington’s influence in Afghanistan is further diminishing.
China’s Cautious Approach
With the US stepping back, China has an opportunity to expand its presence in Afghanistan. However, analysts suggest that Beijing is unlikely to engage in large-scale humanitarian efforts. Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili, director of the Centre for Governance and Markets at the University of Pittsburgh, noted that China is more focused on trade, investment, and security rather than development aid.
China was one of the first countries to send an ambassador to Afghanistan after the Taliban regained control in 2021, but it has yet to formally recognize the regime. Beijing has facilitated mining deals worth $6.5 billion and signed a $540 million energy agreement. Additionally, China has granted Afghanistan tariff-free access to its markets in sectors like construction and consumer goods.
However, China’s direct aid remains minimal compared to its economic investments. While Beijing touts itself as a major donor, specifics about its contributions remain unclear. The most recent publicly available data shows that China provided 2,000 tonnes of food aid through the UN World Food Programme, reaching 250,000 Afghans.
Security Concerns Restrict China’s Engagement
Despite its financial capacity, China is wary of deeper involvement in Afghanistan due to security risks. Zhu Yongbiao, a professor at Lanzhou University’s School of Politics and International Relations, emphasized that Beijing’s assistance will remain limited unless the Taliban addresses China’s security concerns. Specifically, China wants Kabul to take stronger action against terrorist groups like the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, which Beijing sees as a major threat to its Xinjiang region.
China has already suffered casualties from Afghan-based militant groups. In January 2023, an ISIS affiliate attacked Chinese nationals outside the foreign ministry in Kabul, just a month after a separate attack injured five Chinese businessmen. Rising security threats to Chinese projects in Pakistan, which Islamabad attributes to instability in Afghanistan, further complicate Beijing’s calculus.
Will the US Completely Lose Influence?
While USAID’s suspension weakens US engagement, analysts argue that Washington’s overall influence in Afghanistan remains significant. Zhu pointed out that US leverage extends beyond direct aid, encompassing diplomatic pressure and counterterrorism efforts.
Moreover, the effectiveness of US aid has long been questioned. Murtazashvili highlighted inefficiencies in USAID’s operations, noting that a substantial portion of its funds goes toward administrative and security costs rather than direct humanitarian assistance. The withdrawal of USAID does not necessarily mean the end of US involvement in Afghanistan, as Washington may still exert control through other diplomatic channels.
India’s Growing Interest in Afghanistan
Amid shifting geopolitical dynamics, India is positioning itself as a key player in Afghanistan’s future. New Delhi recently pledged additional support for Afghanistan’s healthcare sector and assistance for returning Afghan refugees. The commitment followed a meeting in Dubai between Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Afghan Foreign Minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Mutaqi.
Abdul Basit, a senior associate fellow at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, described Afghanistan as a “battleground for influence” between China and India. However, he believes China holds a significant advantage due to its extensive economic ties with Kabul. India, while committed to maintaining its presence, is unlikely to match Beijing’s level of investment.
Uncertain Future for Afghanistan
The end of USAID’s assistance could deepen Afghanistan’s economic crisis, affecting education, healthcare, and mine clearance operations. Although China has the financial resources to step in, its cautious approach and security concerns make a large-scale intervention unlikely. Meanwhile, India’s efforts remain more symbolic than substantial.
As major powers recalibrate their policies, Afghanistan faces an uncertain future. With dwindling international aid, the humanitarian crisis in the country may only worsen unless alternative support structures emerge.
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