Foreign ministers from Turkiye, Russia, and Iran convened in Doha on Saturday to address the escalating crisis in Syria. As members of the Astana process—an initiative launched in 2017 to broker peace in Syria—the three nations face the challenge of reconciling their differing interests to prevent further chaos in the region.
The meeting brings together Turkiye’s Hakan Fidan, Russia’s Sergei Lavrov, and Iran’s Abbas Araghchi, all tasked with finding solutions to renewed hostilities in Syria. While the trio has cooperated under the Astana framework, they remain divided on the battlefield. Moscow and Tehran back Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while Türkiye has historically supported opposition forces.
Turkiye’s High Stakes
With a 900-kilometer border with Syria and nearly three million Syrian refugees within its borders, Türkiye has significant reasons to seek stability in its neighbor. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has recently softened his stance on Assad, emphasizing the need for stability and safe zones to facilitate refugee repatriation.
Erdogan, speaking this week, urged Assad to “reconcile with his people” and expressed hope for the opposition’s advance toward Damascus “without incident.” This shift aligns with Türkiye’s priority to prevent the resurgence of terror groups like Daesh and PKK/YPG, which could exploit a potential power vacuum in Syria.
Assad’s Stalemate Frustrates Allies
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has shown resistance to reconciliation efforts, including those proposed by Türkiye. Assad’s refusal to meet with Erdogan—contingent on Türkiye withdrawing its forces from northern Syria—has strained relations with key allies.
Analyst Gonul Tol of the Middle East Institute in Washington observed that Assad’s reluctance to engage has alienated not only Turkiye but also Russia and Iran. “Assad has managed to piss everyone off…because he has been dragging his feet on efforts to reach a deal with both Turkiye and others,” Tol said.
Russia, a staunch Assad supporter, appears increasingly willing to explore alternatives, including a transitional government that might exclude Assad but include elements of his regime and opposition factions. This aligns with Türkiye’s potential interest in a diplomatic resolution that balances regional power dynamics.
Iran’s Growing Frustration
Iran, another crucial backer of Assad, has also expressed dissatisfaction. Following the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah—whose forces supported Assad during the civil war—Tehran has received little recognition or gratitude from Damascus.
This rift among Assad’s supporters underscores the complexities of the Syrian crisis and highlights the urgency for a collective solution.
Future of Syria Remains Unclear
The Doha meeting comes at a critical time as Turkiye, Russia, and Iran seek to avert further instability. While the three nations have cooperated under the Astana process, their divergent goals and Assad’s intransigence pose significant challenges.
The possibility of promoting a transitional government—potentially without Assad—may signal a shift in strategy, but the road to resolution remains fraught with uncertainty. For Turkiye, the stakes are particularly high, with domestic security, refugee policy, and regional influence all hanging in the balance.
Observers will watch closely as the Astana partners navigate this latest effort to shape the future of Syria.
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