U.S. President Donald Trump has once again emphasized his desire for Saudi Arabia to normalize diplomatic relations with Israel, building on the progress made through the Abraham Accords during his first presidential term. While the Abraham Accords successfully established ties between Israel and several Arab nations—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco—Saudi Arabia has remained a key exception. Normalization with Riyadh would represent a major shift in Middle East geopolitics, but multiple significant obstacles remain.
Background: The Abraham Accords and Saudi Arabia’s Role
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, marked the first time in decades that Arab countries officially recognized Israel without a comprehensive Israeli-Palestinian peace deal. These agreements facilitated economic, cultural, and security cooperation between Israel and signatory Arab states, signaling a new regional alignment largely motivated by shared concerns about Iran’s influence.
Saudi Arabia, however, has maintained its stance of not formalizing ties with Israel until Palestinian issues are addressed. As the largest Sunni Arab country and custodian of Islam’s two holiest sites, Saudi Arabia’s position carries immense symbolic and political weight in the Muslim world. Riyadh’s participation in the Abraham Accords would be transformative, potentially paving the way for broader regional cooperation and stability.
Key Challenges to Saudi-Israel Normalization
Despite renewed diplomatic efforts by President Trump, several critical factors complicate Saudi Arabia’s willingness to formalize relations with Israel:
1. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
The unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains the foremost barrier. The ongoing war in Gaza and Israel’s policies under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have hardened tensions. Saudi Arabia’s leadership remains committed to supporting Palestinian rights, and normalization without meaningful progress on this front risks backlash domestically and across the Arab world.
Saudi officials are unlikely to support normalization while Israeli military actions in Gaza continue and settlement expansions persist. Public opinion within Saudi Arabia and the broader Arab world largely opposes normalization without a just resolution to Palestinian grievances.
2. Security Guarantees and Defense Cooperation
Saudi Arabia seeks robust security guarantees from the United States as a precondition for normalization with Israel. Talks about a formal defense pact similar to U.S. treaties with South Korea or NATO allies have been discussed but have not materialized.
While Trump’s administration has ramped up arms sales and strategic cooperation with Saudi Arabia, a binding treaty remains elusive. Congressional approval and political complexities in Washington further delay formal agreements. Riyadh wants assurances that normalization will not compromise its security, especially given ongoing regional threats from Iran and instability in Yemen and Syria.
3. Regional Political and Religious Considerations
Saudi Arabia must balance its role as leader of the Sunni Muslim world and guardian of Islam’s holiest sites. Joining the Abraham Accords could challenge Riyadh’s standing among Muslim-majority countries that oppose Israel’s policies. Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s relations with other Gulf states and Arab League members shape its calculus on normalization.
The kingdom also faces domestic considerations, as conservative elements within Saudi society may resist formal ties with Israel absent Palestinian peace progress.
Trump’s Middle East Strategy and Its Impact
The Trump administration has reinforced U.S.-Saudi relations through increased military cooperation, arms sales, and joint investments in technology and energy. These measures aim to modernize the Saudi military and strengthen the bilateral alliance, even as formal diplomatic breakthroughs with Israel remain pending.
Trump’s public endorsement of Saudi-Israel normalization signals an intent to accelerate regional realignment. However, without resolving the core Palestinian issue and providing Saudi Arabia with comprehensive security guarantees, progress is likely to remain slow.
Potential Regional Implications of Normalization
Saudi Arabia’s entry into the Abraham Accords would be a geopolitical game-changer. It would consolidate an Arab-Israeli bloc focused on countering Iranian influence and enhancing economic integration. Riyadh’s participation would legitimize Israel’s presence in the Arab world and potentially encourage other nations to follow suit.
Economic opportunities would expand, including joint ventures in technology, tourism, and energy sectors. Saudi Arabia could leverage its position to mediate future regional conflicts and strengthen its international diplomatic influence.
However, premature normalization risks inflaming tensions with Iran-backed groups and complicating Saudi Arabia’s relationships with other Muslim-majority countries. Careful diplomacy will be required to manage these dynamics.
President Trump’s renewed efforts to promote Saudi Arabia-Israel normalization reflect a strategic vision for reshaping Middle East alliances. While the Abraham Accords have opened the door to historic cooperation, Saudi Arabia’s participation remains contingent on resolving major political and security challenges.
The unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict, particularly the situation in Gaza, is the most significant hurdle. Without progress on this front, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to fully normalize ties with Israel. Additionally, the kingdom seeks concrete U.S. security guarantees and must navigate complex regional and domestic pressures.
Despite these challenges, the Trump administration’s expanded military and economic engagement with Saudi Arabia creates a framework for eventual progress. Should Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords, it would mark a profound shift in regional politics, with lasting implications for peace, security, and economic development in the Middle East.
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