Foreign ministers from 17 Western and Middle Eastern countries convened in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on January 12, 2025, to discuss Syria’s future. This summit came as the country navigates the aftermath of the recent ousting of President Bashar al-Assad. The gathering marked the first such regional meeting after Assad’s departure, signaling a shift in both regional and international dynamics.
Syria’s Transition and International Pressure
The talks focused on accelerating aid to Syria’s new government while ensuring that the caretaker leadership meets its commitment to a more inclusive and representative administration. Western diplomats expressed cautious optimism about the new leadership’s ability to form a broader government by March 2025. However, they also raised concerns about the readiness of Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, especially after his Islamist group’s military success in December 2024.
Sharaa’s leadership is under scrutiny as many fear that the rapid military victory has left him ill-prepared to build consensus and implement a democratic transition. This uncertainty over the future of Syria has led to calls from both Syrians and international stakeholders for the removal of economic sanctions to help stabilize the country and encourage the return of refugees.
Humanitarian Aid and Economic Sanctions
During the summit, Western officials discussed lifting some sanctions that have hindered Syria’s recovery. The United States recently eased restrictions on emergency humanitarian aid and energy supplies, enabling Qatar to send gas shipments to Syria. The EU is also considering similar moves, with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock committing an additional €50 million in aid for food, shelter, and medical care.
Despite these efforts, there is a recognition that lifting sanctions too quickly could undermine the new government’s legitimacy. Foreign diplomats are wary of the potential for sectarianism and the risk that the post-Assad leadership could become unstable without careful planning and international oversight.
Arab Nations’ Role in Syria’s Reconstruction
Saudi Arabia, alongside Turkey and Qatar, is positioning itself as a key player in Syria’s reconstruction. The Arab countries have already been providing aid to Syria, albeit in an ad hoc manner. However, this assistance often comes with fewer demands on the Syrian government compared to Western aid. Saudi Arabia’s efforts to host the summit further solidify its ambitions to influence Syria’s future direction.
The Challenge of Syria’s Diverse Factions
A major point of contention discussed in Riyadh was the integration of Syria’s various military factions into the national army. Special attention was given to the role of foreign fighters and the risks they pose to the government’s stability. Qatar, in particular, has expressed concern about the loss of public-sector jobs for Syria’s Alawite minority, offering to subsidize salaries to ease tensions.
Another significant challenge is the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the northeast. Turkish attacks on the SDF, which Ankara claims is allied with Kurdish separatists in Turkey, continue to strain relations. Diplomats worry that Turkey’s military actions could derail efforts to form a unified government in Syria.
International Cooperation and Future Prospects
The summit concluded with a focus on ensuring that Syria’s new government continues to move toward a democratic transition. While there are significant challenges, both in terms of governance and the rebuilding process, international diplomats remain hopeful that the country can stabilize with the right mix of aid, pressure, and strategic support. The coming months will be crucial as Syria’s new leadership works to fulfill its promises and navigate the complexities of post-Assad Syria.
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