In wake of October 7 attacks by Hamas on Israel; Saudi Arabia had indicated a move towards normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel. Despite three months of conflict resulting in over 23,000 Palestinian casualties and heightened tensions in the Arab world, Riyadh suggests that the possibility of recognizing Israel remains under consideration.
During a recent round of shuttle diplomacy across the Middle East, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken asserted that normalization talks persist. He emphasized a regional interest in pursuing normalization.
In an interview with the BBC, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, Prince Khalid bin Bandar, confirmed that there is interest in normalizing relations, a sentiment that has reportedly existed since 1982. However, experts suggest that the cost for Saudi Arabia to endorse normalization may have increased post-Gaza war. Riyadh could seek greater concessions from the United States and Israel.
CNN has approached Saud Foreign Ministry for more details.
While the Saudi government remains open to normalization, conditions for such a move include tangible steps by Israel to establish the foundations of a two-state solution. This may involve actions such as lifting the blockade from Gaza, empowering the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and the West Bank, and withdrawing from key areas in the West Bank.
Saudi analyst Ali Shihabi emphasized the need for concrete measures, not empty promises that Israel might disregard post-normalization.
Secretary Blinken, while not explicitly calling for a Gaza ceasefire, asserted that Israel’s increased integration into the Middle East hinges on resolving the conflict in Gaza and facilitating a “practical pathway” to a Palestinian state.
The Palestinian aspiration for an independent state encompasses the occupied West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza. Notably, most Muslim and Arab countries have refrained from recognizing Israel until the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other officials have consistently rejected the idea of a Palestinian state, a stance reiterated by U.S. President Joe Biden, who stated that the Israeli government does not seek a two-state solution.
In 2020, four Arab nations—namely, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—formalized recognition of Israel through the Abraham Accords, a series of treaties. These accords marked a departure from the longstanding Arab insistence on a Palestinian state. The Biden administration has endeavored to persuade Saudi Arabia, considered a leader in the Muslim world, to follow suit, potentially influencing other Muslim nations to recognize Israel.
Yousef Al Otaiba, a key figure in shaping the Abraham Accords as the UAE ambassador, emphasized the commitment to the two-state solution. He clarified that the accord with Israel prevented West Bank annexation and potential violent escalation. He endorsed a two-state solution endorsed by the Arab League and the international community.
While Saudi Arabia’s official stance for the past two decades supported the establishment of a Palestinian state, this demand had receded from official rhetoric until the October 7 attack.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) had indicated in September a desire for a deal to improve the lives of Palestinians without explicitly endorsing a Palestinian state.
During that period, the official discourse primarily revolved around bolstering U.S. security assurances for Saudi Arabia and providing assistance with the kingdom’s civilian nuclear program
However, the October 7 attack on Israel and the subsequent intense conflict in Gaza prompted Saudi Arabia to temporarily suspend normalization talks with the Israeli government. The latter is widely disliked in the Arab world, perceived as accountable for the plight of Palestinians.
A survey conducted by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy from November 14 to December 6 revealed that 96% of the 1,000 surveyed Saudis believed Arab countries should immediately sever all diplomatic, political, economic, and any other contacts with Israel as a protest against its military actions in Gaza.
Post-war, the United States has indicated that bypassing Palestinian rights for the sake of integrating Israel into the region may not be viable. Blinken said on Tuesday that it is clear to him from conversations across the region that a normalization deal is “not in substitute for or at the expense of a political horizon for the Palestinians and ultimately a Palestinian state.”
Normalization discussions appear to be refocusing on prioritizing Palestinian rights.
Given the heightened Saudi public sentiment following the Gaza war, experts suggest that Riyadh may now demand more substantial concessions from Israel towards the Palestinians, potentially including the establishment of a provisional Palestinian state.
In the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health in Gaza reports that over 23,000 individuals have lost their lives. Israel initiated the war in response to Hamas’ October 7 attack, during which Palestinian militants killed 1,200 people and took over 240 hostages, according to Israeli authorities. Israel believes that 107 hostages seized on that day are still being held in Gaza, along with the bodies of 25 individuals who lost their lives.
Prince Khalid, the Saudi ambassador, emphasized to the BBC that while Saudi Arabia still believes in the potential for normalization with Israel, it will not come at the expense of the Palestinian people. He described Palestinians as the crucial element in any normalization deal, framing it as a Palestinian-Israeli peace plan rather than a Saudi-Israeli initiative. When asked about the inclusion of Hamas in a future Palestinian state, the ambassador did not rule out the possibility, suggesting openness to change with optimism and hope.
When queried about the potential inclusion of Hamas in a prospective Palestinian state, the ambassador refrained from categorically dismissing the possibility. Instead, he conveyed that such a consideration necessitates extensive contemplation and effort, noting that room for change exists when approached with optimism and hope.
Riyadh is not in a hurry
Riyadh demonstrates a deliberate approach, exercising patience as it awaits opportune conditions for engaging in a diplomatic agreement with Israel, as highlighted by Maksad in discussions with CNN.
The normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel has emerged as a prominent objective in U.S. Middle East policy. Despite initial tensions arising from President Biden’s pledge during his campaign to isolate Saudi Arabia in response to the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the Biden administration has set aside differences with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in light of Riyadh’s expressed willingness to embrace Israel.
Facilitating a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be a notable foreign policy achievement for the Biden administration, particularly in the lead-up to the upcoming presidential elections.
Facilitating a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be a notable foreign policy achievement for the Biden administration, particularly in the lead-up to the upcoming presidential elections.
Maksad underscores that congressional delegations, representing both Democrats and Republicans, have visited the kingdom, and relations with the Biden administration have improved after an initial period of challenges. Saudi Arabia remains patient, awaiting the desired changes, and possesses the luxury of time in its approach.
However, Riyadh exercises caution in negotiating a deal with the current Israeli government, regarded as the most right-wing in Israel’s history and associated with the conflict in Gaza.
Prince Khalid characterizes the current Israeli stance as extreme, absolutist, and unyielding.
He identifies the primary obstacle to resolving the conflict as Israel itself, emphasizing the influence of extremist settlers within the Israeli government.
Prince Khalid told the BBC, adding that the main obstacle to finding a resolution to the conflict is now Israel.
Notably, tensions have surfaced between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a key participant in the Abraham Accords. The Gulf state, holding the rotating presidency of the United Nations Security Council twice in the preceding two years, introduced a draft resolution critical of Israel in December. However, a substantially diluted version of the resolution was ultimately adopted.
Abu Dhabi is actively advocating for an end to the ongoing conflict and a return to the two-state solution as a framework for achieving peace. Lana Nusseibeh, the UAE’s ambassador to the UN, characterized the war in Gaza as a pivotal moment, signaling a potential shift in the UAE’s approach
She highlighted that without progress toward a two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the UAE’s commitment to the reconstruction of Gaza would be limited, deviating from the trajectory envisioned through the Abraham Accords.
Despite these considerations, Abu Dhabi has made it clear that it aims to safeguard relations with Israel, even in the midst of the conflict.
Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, emphasized the strategic nature of the decision to recognize Israel, noting that such strategic choices are enduring and subject to various obstacles. Gargash acknowledged the significant challenges faced in the wake of this strategic decision, as reported by Saudi-owned Al Arabiya.
According to Saudi analyst Shihabi, the Saudi government is prioritizing substance over superficial appearances, emphasizing that a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel represents a crucial leverage point for the United States or any other entity seeking to encourage concessions from Israel. The Kingdom recognizes the potential of such an agreement in pushing for a definitive resolution of the protracted Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
