The race to be the next NATO boss is heating up. But it is a race run largely in the dark, with no sign of a winner yet.
Jens Stoltenberg, the transatlantic military alliance’s Norwegian secretary-general, is due to step down at the end of September after nine years in post.
Many alliance members would like his succession settled at, or even before, a NATO summit in Lithuania in mid-July.
That does not give NATO’s 31 nations, spanning from the United States through new member Finland to Turkey, much time to forge the consensus needed to pick a new leader. They could also ask Stoltenberg to extend his term for a fourth time.
Whoever assumes control will do so at a crucial juncture, confronting the dual problems of keeping members united in support of Ukraine while avoiding any escalation that would force NATO into a direct conflict with Russia.
Ben Wallace, the British defence secretary, said last week that he would be interested in the position. Mette Frederiksen, the prime minister of Denmark, is also emerging as a major contender as several states press for the appointment of the first female NATO secretary-general.
Despite playing a very visible role, the competition is rather murky and is largely decided through discussions between diplomats and leaders. All NATO members must concur that a consensus has been achieved before those discussions may end.
Leaders will be searching for a highly competent politician, communicator, and diplomat, according to Jamie Shea, a former top NATO official who spent 38 years with the organisation.
“Keeping the family together, keeping everyone on board, and being in touch with all of the allies to make sure that you’re addressing their concerns, is an important part of the job,” said Shea, who is currently working for the think tank Chatham House.
Others, including France, prefer someone from a member state of the European Union in order to foster tighter ties between NATO and the EU.
The requirements are fully satisfied by Frederiksen. She has refrained from expressing her lack of interest in the position even if she claims she is not a contender. According to NATO diplomats, she is being given significant consideration in the background.
The announcement that Frederiksen will be visiting American President Joe Biden in early June sparked renewed media interest after her name first appeared in print in a story by the Norwegian tabloid VG last month.
Additionally, a campaign for the NATO position would not be easy.
Her nation falls well short of the NATO target of 2% of GDP being allocated to defence. Despite Frederiksen’s promise to step up efforts, Denmark is only at 1.38% of the target.
Additionally, some allies contend that since Russia’s conflict in Ukraine has made that region even more crucial for NATO, the position ought to be filled by an Eastern European for the first time.
The appointment of Frederiksen would make her the third successive head of NATO to come from a Nordic nation.
Additionally, a campaign for the NATO position would not be easy.
Her nation falls well short of the NATO target of 2% of GDP being allocated to defence. Despite Frederiksen’s promise to step up efforts, Denmark is only at 1.38% of the target.
Additionally, some allies contend that since Russia’s conflict in Ukraine has made that region even more crucial for NATO, the position ought to be filled by an Eastern European for the first time.
The appointment of Frederiksen would make her the third successive head of NATO to come from a Nordic nation.
Additionally, some diplomats worry that several of the names being considered may not be acceptable to Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who is largely anticipated to win reelection on Sunday and has demonstrated little remorse for obstructing NATO consensus.
Sweden’s NATO admission is being delayed by Turkey and Hungary.
The lack of candidates who appear to have broad support makes it more likely that Stoltenberg’s term will be extended once more, probably through another NATO summit in 2024.
According to Stoltenberg, he has no desire to remain any longer. He hasn’t, however, indicated what he would say if asked.
