China’s rise is changing the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. The US hub-and-spokes alliance model has been at the heart of Asia’s security architecture for nearly seven decades. China itself has so far avoided entering into any military alliances, with the historic exception of its relationship with North Korea. However, Beijing has forged security partnerships with Russia, Cambodia, Laos, Iran and Pakistan. The hub-and-spoke system has not carved out a collective defence or security system in Asia, as exists with NATO in the Atlantic region and previously existed with the Warsaw Pact.
The forums set up by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are primarily intended to build confidence but are dismissed by critics as not very effective. In response to the challenge posed by China’s rise and growing geopolitical uncertainty, countries like Japan, Australia and India have unveiled new Indo-Pacific strategies. Japan has announced in its defence strategy that it will build a “counterstrike capability”. China views QUAD as an “informal anti-China security group,” according to the Communist Party’s nationalist mouthpiece Global Times. The hub-and-spokes architecture continues to exist but is reaching its limits in the face of Chinese pressure.
Indonesia is trying to offer an inclusive, ASEAN-centric security alternative to the deepening Sino-American bipolarity for the Indo-Pacific. The US, India and Australia “think of the regional security architecture as a construct in which security is established against, not with, China” The goal is to contain China’s geopolitical claims and share the burden of doing so across multiple players.
