The World Bank has cut its growth forecasts for most countries and regions this year. According to the latest Global Economic Prospects report, global growth will slow from 2.9 per cent in 2022 to 1.7 per cent in 2023. The U.S., China and the European Union have entered a period of markedly lower growth. This would mark the first time in 80 years that two global recessions occurred within the same decade. Growth in the US is forecast to fall to 0.5 per cent in 2023 — 1.9 percentage points below previous forecasts and the weakest performance outside of official recessions since 1970.
In 2023, euro-area growth is expected at zero per cent — a downward revision of 1.8 percentage points. Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to decelerate from 3.8% in 2022 to 2.7% by 2023. By the end of 2024, GDP levels in these regions will be roughly 6 per cent below levels expected before the pandemic. However. The Canadian economy expanded 0.7% on quarter in Q3 2022, a fifth consecutive quarter of growth. Exports increased by 2.1%, led by crude oil and bitumen, and farm and fishing products. Imports fell 0.4%, reflecting widespread declines in energy products, including natural gas and nuclear fuel.
The South Asian region is expected to grow by 5.5pc and 5.8pc in 2023 and 2024. Growth in India, the Maldives, and Nepal will offset the effects of the floods in Pakistan and the economic and political crises in Afghanistan and Sri Lanka, according to the World Bank’s latest report. Pakistan, which is projected at 2pc in FY2022-23, is half the pace that was anticipated in June last year. Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan implemented export restrictions on food 2022, including rice, wheat and sugar. The recent floods in Pakistan are estimated to have caused damage equivalent to about 4.8pc of GDP. In the report, the Washington-based lending agency said Pakistan’s economic output was not only declining itself but also bringing down the regional growth rate. It forecast Pakistan’s GDP growth rate to improve to 3.2pc in 2024, but that too would be lower than the earlier estimate of 4.2pc.
