French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne resigns: A Strategic Move Ahead of European Parliament Elections

On Monday, French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne resigned, a strategic move by President Emmanuel Macron to infuse renewed momentum into the second term in anticipation of the upcoming European Parliament elections and the Paris Olympics scheduled for this summer.
President Macron has not yet announced a successor for Borne; however, she will continue to fulfill a caretaker role alongside the existing government until the formation of a new cabinet, as delineated by the presidential palace in a meticulously orchestrated maneuver.
This transition follows a tumultuous year marked by political upheavals stemming from contentious reforms to the nation’s pension system and immigration laws.
The prospective transition is not inherently indicative of a strategic shift in political orientation; rather, it signifies an inclination to move past the prevailing focus on pension and immigration reforms, directing attention towards new priorities, particularly the attainment of full employment.
In her resignation, Borne articulated that she and President Macron concurred in their recent meeting on the imperative nature of advancing reforms.
The European Parliament elections, slated for June, are anticipated to witness notable gains by eurosceptic factions amidst widespread public dissatisfaction concerning escalating living expenses and perceived governmental inadequacies in managing migration.
Within the French context, empirical data from opinion polls suggests a trailing position for President Macron’s party vis-à-vis the far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s faction, with a discernible margin of approximately eight to ten percentage points preceding the impending elections.
Speculation of a government reshuffle had been rife in the weeks since the French parliament narrowly adopted toughened immigration rules, a battle that exposed deep cracks in Macron’s centrist majority. Macron promised a new political initiative.
Among those cited as potential candidates to replace Borne are Education Minister Gabriel Attal, 34, and Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu, 37, either of whom would be France’s youngest prime minister.
With a young, dynamic profile who can communicate well, the prime minister would be a campaigner, which shows that Emmanuel Macron’s priority is the election rather than passing bills,” Benjamin Morel, a political analyst, said on Franceinfo.
Former Agriculture Minister Julien Denormandie, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire and Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin, have also been mentioned by political sources as possible options for the prime minister’s job.
TURBULENT ENVIRONMENT
A softly-spoken career bureaucrat with a background of service under various Socialist Party ministers before her tenure in Macron’s administration, Elisabeth Borne, aged 62, assumed the position of Prime Minister in May 2022, marking only the second instance of a woman holding this office. Macron and his government, under Borne’s leadership, grappled with the challenges of navigating a more tumultuous parliament, which resulted in the loss of their absolute majority shortly after Macron’s reelection for a second term in 2022.
Despite the absence of an absolute majority, Macron’s advisors assert that he successfully advanced the most arduous aspects of his economic agenda within the initial year and a half of his second term. They anticipate that forthcoming reforms, particularly in the domains of education and euthanasia, will be approached with a more consensual strategy.
However, Macron’s utilization of executive powers in the previous year to enact a contentious increase in the pension age to 64 led to weeks of intense protests. Borne earned the moniker “Madame 49.3” for invoking the special powers delineated in Article 49.3 of the French constitution on 23 occasions to expedite the passage of bills.
The impending cabinet reshuffle is poised to heighten competition within Macron’s camp to determine his successor in the upcoming presidential election in 2027. Noteworthy figures such as former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, Darmanin, and Le Maire are all perceived as potential candidates. Nevertheless, Marine Le Pen, having dedicated the past 18 months in parliament to rehabilitate her image and enhance her credentials as a prospective president, is now speculated by many to be a formidable contender for the 2027 presidential election.