In defiance of predictions that he would lose the election, President Tayyip Erdogan rallied people with a potent blend of nationalism and religious conservatism, which appears to be enough to extend his rule into a third decade on Sunday.
Erdogan hasn’t officially won because he still needs to defeat Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the runoff on Sunday, but analysts are expecting him to win because of how well he’s been doing lately.
A victory would solidify the reign of a man who has revolutionised Turkey, remaking the secular state established 100 years ago to match his pious vision while consolidating power in what some perceive as a march towards dictatorship.
Erdogan has turned Turkey into an assertive regional force and pushed the NATO member away from its old Western friends. He has also built relationships with Vladimir Putin of Russia.
During his 20 years in power, especially during this election campaign, critics claim he has further split the country. However, he made the opposite case prior to the election on Sunday, claiming that his opponents were “poisoning political discourse”.
In an interview with CNN Turk on Thursday, he said, “We will continue to embrace our nation, which is a style of thinking that comes from our culture. “Every one of our 85 million people will win if we win on May 28 with God’s blessing.”
Instead, it has shown his persistence, astounded his critics who expected him to deal with the consequences of a cost-of-living issue and criticism of the state’s response to the February earthquakes that lost more than 50,000 lives, and surprised them.
Critics and earthquake survivors who asserted that these flaws cost lives were enraged by the government’s slow first response to the earthquake and the enforcement of building standards.
However, his AK Party, which has Islamist roots, triumphed in 10 of the 11 provinces devastated by the earthquake, helping its allies win a legislative majority on May 14.
Erdogan has let his guard down while campaigning as he tries to invigorate his conservative base by branding his opponents as “pro-LGBT.”
Critics claim that further five years of his leadership run the risk of further undermining the democracy that he is said to have built around an executive presidency, muzzled opposition, imprisoned opponents, and taken over the media, judiciary, and economy.
Erdogan presents himself as a champion of democracy who has stood up to military meddling in Turkish politics; in 2016, 250 people were killed in an attempt at a military coup when rogue troops attacked the parliament.
His campaign aimed to draw attention away from the cost-of-living crisis and towards economic gains, with the aid of a generally friendly Turkish media.
At first, Erdogan’s Turkey was viewed by Western partners as a dynamic example of Islam and democracy that could help Middle Eastern nations fighting to overcome tyranny and stagnation.
But his quest for greater authority stoked nationalism among Turks and frightened allies abroad. A leader who placed Islamic principles at the centre of public life in a nation with strong secularist traditions and supported the religious working classes was rewarded, according to ardent followers.
It was seen by opponents as a turn towards authoritarianism.
Authorities conducted a sweeping crackdown following the 2016 coup attempt, imprisoning more than 77,000 people while they await trial. According to rights organisations, Turkey once held the record for most journalists imprisoned worldwide.
Threats from PKK, Islamic State, and coup sympathisers, according to Erdogan’s administration, were used as justification for the purge.
At home, an expansive new presidential palace complex on the outskirts of Ankara served as a stunning symbol of his new authority, while overseas, Turkey grew more assertive, interfering in Syria, Iraq, and Libya and frequently using military drones produced in Turkey to great effect.
