The Cop28 summit in Dubai has reached a critical juncture as a group of influential countries, including Australia, the US, and the UK, have declared their refusal to sign a draft agreement they deem a “death certificate” for small island nations. The statement, delivered by Australian climate change minister Chris Bowen on behalf of the umbrella group of countries, reflects growing tensions over the proposed text and the urgent need for stronger measures to address the global climate crisis.
The draft agreement, released on Monday evening local time, sidestepped contentious calls for a “phase-out” or “phase-down” of fossil fuels in an attempt to find common ground among nearly 200 participating nations. While some elements of the draft were welcomed, such as the first mention of reducing fossil fuel production in a Cop text, critics deemed it “grossly insufficient” and “incoherent.”
Cedric Schuster of Samoa, representing the Alliance of Small Island States, emphasized the group’s unwillingness to sign an agreement lacking robust commitments to phasing out fossil fuels. The umbrella group, which also includes Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Israel, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, echoed this sentiment through Chris Bowen, who underscored the high stakes for many nations and the imperative to avoid signing their “death certificates.”
Bowen acknowledged some positive aspects in the draft but emphasized the group’s unanimous view that it falls short of addressing the severity of the climate crisis. He called for a clearer signal on the future of fossil fuels, improved climate adaptation measures, and an outcome that represents a significant step forward.
The umbrella group advocates for a phase-out of “unabated” fossil fuels, suggesting that coal, oil, and gas could still be used if carbon capture and storage technology proves viable. However, they expressed openness to alternative wording that emphasizes a transition away from fossil fuels in line with scientific recommendations.
The group firmly stated that the agreement must not compromise the goal of limiting global heating to 1.5°C, rejecting any flexibility on this critical aspect. The refusal to sign the current draft aligns the umbrella group with a growing list of countries, civil society groups, and analysts who object to its contents.
As the Cop28 summit approached its Tuesday morning deadline, no compromise was in sight. Some countries, including the EU, signaled that they might walk out of the talks if the text remains unchanged. Concerns lingered that countries like Saudi Arabia and its OPEC allies might use the final hours to further weaken the draft, emphasizing dealing with emissions rather than fossil fuels.
The draft text’s inclusion of scientific advice, likely referencing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, underscores the imperative to reduce fossil fuels significantly to achieve net-zero emissions and limit global heating to 1.5°C by 2050.
The like-minded group of developing countries, including China, India, and Saudi Arabia, accused umbrella group members of hypocrisy, pointing to their plans to either expand or not significantly reduce their fossil fuel production while advocating for phasing out unabated fossil fuels.
Criticism has also been directed at wealthy countries for failing to deliver the necessary climate finance for vulnerable nations. Dr. Bill Hare, the chief executive of Climate Analytics, described the draft text as an “epic mess” that, if operationalized, would fail to keep the 1.5°C target within reach. He highlighted the document’s shortcomings in adequately addressing the phasing out of fossil fuels and the urgent need for decisive action in this decade.
As tensions persist and the clock ticks toward the Cop28 deadline, the world watches with bated breath to see whether nations can bridge their differences and forge an agreement that reflects the gravity of the climate crisis and the imperative for bold, collective action.
