Are the Abraham Accords Still Relevant Today?

The Abraham Accords represent a significant turning point in Middle Eastern diplomacy. Signed in 2020, these agreements marked the normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab countries, including the UAE, Bahrain, and later Morocco and Sudan. The Accords were hailed as a breakthrough in Arab-Israeli relations, offering new hope for peace and stability in the region. However, with Saudi Arabia and Syria now reportedly considering joining the agreements, it’s time to evaluate the relevance of the Abraham Accords in today’s rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

What are the Abraham Accords?

The Abraham Accords were historic agreements brokered by the United States under the administration of then-President Donald Trump. These agreements aimed to establish full diplomatic ties between Israel and a number of Arab nations. For decades, the Arab world had largely rejected normalization with Israel due to the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, with shifting regional dynamics, many Arab countries began to see normalization with Israel as a strategic necessity to counter rising threats, particularly from Iran.

The Role of Saudi Arabia and Syria in the Abraham Accords

Saudi Arabia has long been viewed as the de facto leader of the Arab world, and its potential participation in the Abraham Accords could significantly alter the political landscape. While the kingdom has yet to formally join, it has already paved the way for incremental steps toward normalization with Israel, particularly through backchannel talks and security cooperation. The recent developments suggest that Saudi Arabia’s support for the Accords may soon come to fruition, but questions remain about its stance on the Palestinian issue and the broader implications for Arab unity.

Similarly, Syria, which has long been a staunch opponent of Israel, has also shown interest in re-establishing relations. While Syria’s involvement would be more complicated due to its ongoing civil war and strained relations with Western powers, the changing dynamics of the Middle East may push it closer to Israel, particularly as the Syrian government seeks reconstruction support from Gulf states.

Why Saudi Arabia and Syria’s Potential Involvement Matters

The potential inclusion of Saudi Arabia and Syria in the Abraham Accords is significant for several reasons:

Regional Power Dynamics: Saudi Arabia is the most influential Arab state, and its decision to join the Abraham Accords would have a profound impact on the geopolitical balance in the region. Normalization would signal a broader shift in Arab-Israeli relations and could encourage other states to follow suit.
The Palestinian Cause: One of the key criticisms of the Abraham Accords has been the lack of progress on the Palestinian issue. Saudi Arabia, historically a major supporter of the Palestinian cause, faces a dilemma: its relationship with Israel could potentially overshadow its long-standing commitment to Palestinian self-determination. For Saudi Arabia, the normalization process will likely hinge on assurances for the Palestinian people and progress on a two-state solution.
Security Concerns: Both Saudi Arabia and Syria face growing security threats, particularly from Iran and its proxy forces across the region. The inclusion of Israel in the Accords could provide valuable security partnerships, intelligence sharing, and military cooperation, especially as Iran’s regional influence continues to rise.
Economic and Diplomatic Benefits: Normalizing relations with Israel opens up potential economic opportunities for Saudi Arabia and Syria, especially in trade, technology, and tourism. The Gulf states have shown a keen interest in diversifying their economies, and Israel’s technological expertise in sectors like cybersecurity, defense, and innovation could prove highly beneficial.

The Controversy Around the Accords

Despite the potential benefits, the Abraham Accords have sparked significant controversy, particularly concerning the Palestinian cause. Critics argue that these agreements have sidelined the Palestinian struggle in favor of geopolitical gains. Many feel that by prioritizing relations with Israel, Arab countries are betraying the Palestinian people, who continue to face occupation and human rights abuses in the West Bank and Gaza.

Another point of contention is the Arab consensus. While the Accords have been supported by several Arab states, many others continue to oppose normalization without a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Syria, for instance, has long been an outspoken critic of Israel and would face significant backlash from within its own population and from its regional allies if it were to join the Abraham Accords without tangible gains for Palestine.

What’s Next for the Abraham Accords?

As Saudi Arabia and Syria weigh their options, the future of the Abraham Accords remains uncertain. While the initial signatories of the Accords have benefitted from increased trade, tourism, and diplomatic ties with Israel, the long-term success of the Accords will depend on whether they can address the core issues of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.