This week, Seoul and Washington declared that it would be “the end” of Kim Jong Un’s regime if North Korea used its nuclear weapons against the United States or its ally South Korea.
The harsh warning comes as President Yoon Suk-yeol of South Korea is on a six-day official visit to the US, where he and his counterpart Joe Biden discussed stepping up the US security shield for South Korea in response to the nuclear-armed North’s intensified missile testing.
But how important is the assertive statement? What is known as follows.
It is a new set of actions that strengthens intelligence sharing and military cooperation between the US and South Korea.
The declaration calls for the formation of a “Nuclear Consultative Group” to provide South Korea “a voice in those deliberations” and more information about how the US plans to respond to significant emergencies.
It also contains other measures, such as increased intelligence sharing in the case of a North Korean attack, the routine deployment of a US nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) to South Korea, something that has not happened since the 1980s.
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Seoul’s Ewha University, told AFP that the state visit “represents a new high-water mark for US-South Korea relations, with the breadth and depth of security, economic, and cultural cooperation on full display”.
Yoon has been making an effort to assuage the growingly uneasy public in the South regarding the US’s commitment to so-called “extended deterrence,” in which US resources, including nuclear weapons, are used to deter attacks on allies.
Donald Trump’s projected rise to power in the US will probably lead to “very serious discussions” in Seoul, the official added.
According to Friedhoff, “the biggest challenge for the alliance is something that the alliance really doesn’t have any control over: US domestic politics.”
A straightforward premise underlies the US’s “extended deterrence” defence of South Korea: that the US would retaliate if North Korea used nuclear weapons against South Korea.
This was a credible danger for several years following Pyongyang’s initial nuclear test in 2006. North Korea had just a small number of bombs and little capacity to deploy them very far outside of its own borders.
A majority of South Koreans now feel the nation should build its own nuclear weapons, according to recent studies, with many being sceptical that the US would risk its own cities to save its partner.
Standing next to Yoon at the White House, Biden declared, “A nuclear assault by North Korea against the United States or its allies and partners is intolerable, and will result in the end of whatever regime were to take such an action.
South Korea reaffirmed its dedication to “its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as the cornerstone of the global non-proliferation regime” under the terms of the agreement.
“One thing was clear: there was an implied agreement that Seoul would not go nuclear,” Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst and the practise area lead for policy at LMI Consulting, told AFP. “The nuclear aspirations of Seoul have been restrained.”
Sociology professor at Stanford University and Korea expert Gi-Wook Shin told AFP that the proclamation was “a step forward.”
Shin stated, “I don’t think this will be enough to appease a South Korean public that has become more and more demanding that Seoul develop its own nuclear weapons.”
According to retired South Korean army general Chun In-bum, “North Korea will downplay the message of reassurance by the US regarding nuclear deterrence” in public.
Behind closed doors, however, he claimed that “they will understand: if they use nuclear weapons, it will be the end of the regime.”
There may be additional missile launches to show that Kim Jong Un’s leadership is worried about closer ties between its self-declared arch foes, Washington and Seoul, experts warn.
Experts say it’s still improbable that North Korea will rethink its stance.
