Diplomats gathered at the annual Doha Forum in Qatar have signaled that the resumption of Gaza ceasefire negotiations is unlikely to occur for several weeks. The potential restart may hinge on Israel’s ability to demonstrate the capture or elimination of key Hamas leaders, indicating the perceived success of its military operations. The United States anticipates that such developments could materialize as early as Christmas, although varying timelines are circulating within diplomatic circles.
Amid this diplomatic landscape, the Biden administration is expected to refrain from exerting additional pressure on Israel to conclude its campaign. While new diplomatic initiatives are set to unfold, including a debate and vote on a ceasefire at the UN General Assembly, the U.S. is unlikely to intensify its calls for an immediate end to Israel’s military actions.
In Europe, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell announced the bloc’s proposal to impose sanctions on extremist settlers in the West Bank responsible for violence against Palestinians. This proposition aligns with the UK’s consideration of travel bans for violent West Bank settlers, as stated by Foreign Office minister Andrew Mitchell.
Several factors could influence Israel’s efforts to delay a ceasefire, including potential violence escalation in neighboring regions, particularly Lebanon. The plight of displaced and starving Palestinian refugees attempting to break out into Egypt adds another dimension, along with potential international pressure on Israel to prioritize the release of remaining hostages.
Hamas has unequivocally stated that it will not engage in negotiations on the release of the remaining 137 hostages unless a ceasefire is offered at the conclusion of the prisoner swap process. This stance contrasts with Israel’s reluctance to provide such an assurance, a position backed by the U.S. veto at the UN Security Council last Friday.
The upcoming UN General Assembly vote on a ceasefire, based on a resolution previously vetoed by the U.S., is likely to pass by a significant margin. However, these votes are declaratory and do not hold binding implications.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, addressing the Doha conference, warned of potential escalation and claimed to have been informed by the Hamas political bureau that the organization has the means to resist Israel for several years, a viewpoint not universally shared.
While the U.S. assesses that Iran is not planning direct intervention at present, the situation remains fluid. Egypt, enjoying support from other Gulf states, has resisted accepting refugees from Gaza. Ambassadors from a dozen nations, organized by the UAE and Egypt, visited the Gaza border to witness aid flow firsthand.
The Palestinian leadership insists that discussions on Gaza’s administration post-war hinge on the conflict’s conclusion. Gulf states emphasize their unwillingness to participate in Gaza’s reconstruction without a clear roadmap to a two-state solution, potentially contingent on a change in Israeli leadership.
Husam Zomlot, the Palestinian ambassador to the UK, stressed the Palestinians’ determination to decide their leadership, rejecting calls for interim leadership in Gaza. Zomlot urged the U.S. and UK to recognize the state of Palestine, emphasizing the significance of such recognition for advancing the two-state solution. The complex dynamics continue to shape the trajectory of Gaza ceasefire negotiations and broader geopolitical outcomes.
