Syria-Turkey Relations: Balance of Diplomacy and Unrest has become a focal point of regional attention as both countries navigate a complex web of diplomatic, social, and security challenges. Recent events have highlighted the fragile nature of this relationship, with anti-Syrian riots in Turkey and protests in Syria serving as stark reminders of the ongoing tensions between the two nations.
The diplomatic landscape between Syria and Turkey has been undergoing significant shifts. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, once a staunch supporter of the Syrian opposition, has recently expressed openness to dialogue with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. This potential rapprochement comes after years of severed ties following the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Erdogan’s recent statements about inviting al-Assad for talks signal a possible thawing of relations, although al-Assad has stipulated that any meeting should focus on Turkey’s support for Syrian opposition groups.
This diplomatic maneuvering is occurring against a backdrop of social unrest. In early July 2024, anti-Syrian riots erupted in several Turkish cities, most notably in Kayseri, where accusations of a crime committed by a Syrian refugee led to violence against Syrian-owned businesses and calls for the expulsion of Syrians from Turkey. The unrest resulted in hundreds of arrests and the destruction of property, creating a tense atmosphere for the 3.6 million registered Syrian refugees in Turkey.
The situation has also had repercussions across the border. In northern Syrian cities like Afrin, controlled by Turkish-backed opposition forces, protests broke out in solidarity with Syrians in Turkey. These demonstrations, initially peaceful, turned violent, resulting in casualties and highlighting the interconnected nature of the Syrian-Turkish relationship.
The motivations behind Turkey’s apparent shift in policy towards Syria are multifaceted. Some analysts suggest that Ankara is dissatisfied with the security situation in Syria and is exploring alternatives to its current stance. The presence of Kurdish groups like the YPG, which Turkey considers an extension of the PKK, remains a primary security concern for Turkey. There is speculation that engagement with al-Assad could potentially lead to cooperation against these groups.
However, this potential rapprochement is not without its critics. Some experts argue that Turkey’s policy has already been indirectly aiding the Assad regime since 2016, particularly through its coordination with Russia, a key ally of Assad. The effectiveness of such a strategy in addressing Turkey’s security concerns or facilitating the return of Syrian refugees remains questionable.
The refugee situation plays a significant role in shaping Turkey’s policy considerations. With the largest Syrian refugee population globally, Turkey faces domestic pressure to address the issue. While some in Turkey hope that improved relations with Syria could lead to refugee returns, experts caution that this is unlikely to be a straightforward solution. The Assad regime’s capacity and willingness to accept large-scale returns are limited, and any such process would need to ensure the safety and voluntary nature of these returns.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has emphasized that Turkey’s policy towards Syrian refugees remains unchanged, stressing the voluntary nature of any returns. He has also affirmed Turkey’s continued support for the Syrian opposition, highlighting the complex balancing act that Turkey must perform in its approach to Syria.
The situation for Syrians in Turkey has become increasingly precarious. The recent outbreaks of violence have led many to fear for their safety, with some considering returning to Syria despite the ongoing risks there. This trend is reflected in the reported 12,000 voluntary returns to Syria through the Bab al-Hawa border crossing in the first half of 2024 alone.
Syria-Turkey Relations:Â Balance of Diplomacy and Unrest is further complicated by regional dynamics and the interests of other powers. Russia, a key player in Syria, supports the normalization of relations between Syria and Turkey. Meanwhile, the United States continues to support Kurdish-led groups in Syria, which remains a point of contention for Turkey.
The path forward remains uncertain. Any successful rapprochement between Syria and Turkey would require addressing numerous complex issues, including security guarantees, the status of opposition groups, and the future of Syrian refugees in Turkey. The process could significantly alter the geopolitical landscape of the region, particularly in northern Syria.
As both countries navigate these challenges, the human cost of the ongoing tensions remains high. Syrian refugees in Turkey face an increasingly hostile environment, caught between the fear of violence in Turkey and the risks associated with returning to Syria. Similarly, Syrians in opposition-held areas of northern Syria worry about the implications of a potential Turkish-Syrian reconciliation for their future.
The evolving Syria-Turkey relationship represents a critical juncture in regional politics. The potential for diplomatic breakthroughs exists alongside the risk of further social unrest and humanitarian challenges. As Turkey seeks to balance its security interests, domestic pressures, and international relations, and as Syria looks to emerge from years of isolation, the outcomes of their interactions will have far-reaching implications for the people of both countries and the wider Middle East region. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether this delicate balance can be maintained and whether it can lead to meaningful improvements in the lives of those most affected by the long-standing tensions between these neighboring states.
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