Ursula von der Leyen’s confirmation for a second term as president of the European Commission marks a significant moment for the European Union. Von der Leyen’s second term: Challenges and opportunities for EU will likely see a continuation of her ambitious agenda, but with new hurdles to overcome both within the EU and on the global stage. Von der Leyen’s second term: Challenges and opportunities for EU was secured by a sizeable margin in the European Parliament vote on 18 July. This confirmation is generally seen as positive for Europe and the transatlantic relationship, but the landscape she faces in this term differs significantly from her first. In her political guidelines for the next Commission term, von der Leyen outlined several key priorities. These include building a more competitive Europe that balances regulation and innovation to facilitate the green transition, boosting the EU’s defense ambitions, pushing for social and economic policies such as affordable housing, sustaining agriculture and environmental policies, protecting Europe’s democracy, and standing up for Europe’s global and geopolitical interests.
During her first term, von der Leyen transformed the Commission into the EU’s most crucial arm, particularly in times of crisis. She took on the role of chief decision-maker and negotiator during the COVID-19 pandemic, coordinated Europe’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and shaped the EU’s economic de-risking strategy towards China. Her leadership style, while sometimes criticized as overreaching, was often looked to by European leaders for decisive action. The Commission’s influence was further bolstered by significant policy successes. Major rules on digital and green transitions were adopted, including world-leading digital regulations on artificial intelligence, online content moderation, and platform competition. The EU also incentivized semiconductor manufacturing and prioritized green policies to reduce emissions.
For her second term, von der Leyen aims to build on these successes. The Commission is expected to take on a stronger role in traditional defense and economic security agendas, focusing on boosting Europe’s defense capabilities against Russia and de-risking from China. She has promised a “European competitiveness fund” and a “clean industrial deal” within the first hundred days of the next mandate, along with increased investment in energy infrastructure and technologies. However, von der Leyen will face new challenges in implementing her agenda. The political landscape in Europe has shifted since 2019, with a growing number of populist leaders and far-right governments potentially emerging over the next five years. This could lead to more engaged member states looking to exert their influence at the EU level, particularly in areas traditionally driven by member states, such as security and defense.
The European Parliament also presents new challenges. The growing influence of far-right and hard-right groups is likely to complicate the legislative process. Legislation may need to pass through ad hoc coalitions rather than the traditional grand coalitions of the past. This shift could hamper the Commission’s regulatory ambitions, particularly in areas like the green transition, which has already become a political target. Von der Leyen’s competitiveness agenda, which aims to push for greater innovation and industrial support while furthering the green transition, may face resistance from those wary of new, seemingly onerous regulations. This presents a dilemma for the Commission, which is institutionally designed to present new regulations and proposals.
External challenges will also shape von der Leyen’s second term. The EU must continue to navigate its relationship with China, which is likely to attempt to split Europe and undermine its de-risking agenda. Supporting Ukraine against Russia’s ongoing invasion will require sustained attention and funds.
The upcoming Us elections pose another potential challenge. While von der Leyen has pushed for closer EU-US TIes during her first term, a potential second Trump administration could complicate these efforts. Trump’s previous criticisms of the EU suggest that strengthening transatlantic ties could be an uphill battle.
Despite these challenges, von der Leyen’s confirmation is seen as a positive step for the EU. It provides continuity and avoids potential internal bickering that could have resulted from selecting a new appointee. This stability is crucial as the EU faces complex global challenges. As von der Leyen embarks on her second term, she will need to balance her ambitious agenda with the realities of a changing political landscape both within the EU and globally. Her success in navigating these challenges will be crucial in shaping the EU’s role on the world stage and its internal cohesion in the years to come.
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