France’s far-right National Rally (RN) party has made significant gains, winning the first round of the country’s snap parliamentary elections, according to exit polls. This has set the stage for intense political negotiations among rival parties to prevent the RN from securing power, while protests have erupted in major cities.
Pollsters IFOP, Ipsos, OpinionWay, and Elabe have projected Marine Le Pen’s RN to win about 34 percent of the votes, followed by the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition with 29 percent, and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble Alliance trailing in third with approximately 20.3 percent.
President Macron, who called the snap election following the RN’s surge in the European Parliament elections last month, had hoped that the far-right party, with its historical links to anti-Semitism, would not replicate its success at the national level. However, the exit polls have proven otherwise. At Marine Le Pen’s Henin-Beaumont constituency in northern France, supporters waved French flags and sang the Marseillaise. “The French have shown their willingness to turn the page on a contemptuous and corrosive power,” she told the cheering crowd. RN President Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s protégé and candidate for prime minister, emphasized that the upcoming second round would be “the most important in the history of the French Fifth Republic”.
Projected Outcomes and Political Reactions
Pollster Elabe, in an estimate for BFM TV, projected that the RN and its allies could win 260-310 parliamentary seats in the second round on July 7. Ipsos projected a range of 230-280 seats for the RN and its allies in a poll for France Television. Le Pen and Bardella have both expressed their goal of achieving an absolute majority of 289 seats in the National Assembly.
Macron’s Call for a Democratic Alliance
The RN’s chances of forming a government hinge on political dealmaking among its rivals. Historically, centre-right and centre-left parties have united to keep the far right from power. Macron has called for a “broad democratic alliance” against the far right, stating, “Faced with National Rally, the time has come for a broad, clearly democratic and republican alliance for the second round.”
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal warned that the far right was at “the gates of power” and urged that “no vote should go to the National Rally”. Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of the left-wing New Popular Front, announced plans to withdraw candidates who placed third in the first round to ensure head-to-head races against RN candidates.
High Turnout and Protest Movements
Ipsos estimated a high voter turnout of 65.5 percent at the close of polls, the highest since 1997. The RN, once a political pariah in France, has been rebranded under Le Pen’s leadership, bringing it closer to power than ever before.
Protests have erupted in cities like Paris, Lyon, and Nantes. A few thousand anti-RN protesters gathered at a rally of the leftist alliance in Paris’s Place de la Republique. Najiya Khaldi, a 33-year-old teacher, expressed “disgust, sadness, and fear” at the RN’s strong results. “I am not used to demonstrating,” she said. “I think I came to reassure myself, to not feel alone.”
Implications
If the RN secures an absolute majority in the second round, it would lead to a tense “cohabitation” period where the president is from a different political party than the majority of MPs, with Macron pledging to serve out his term until 2027. Alternatively, protracted negotiations could lead to the formation of a sustainable government. Risk analysis firm Eurasia Group suggests that the RN is “likely” to fall short of an absolute majority, forecasting at least 12 months of a “rancorously blocked National Assembly” and potentially a technocratic government with limited capacity to govern.
Marine Le Pen’s significant lead in the first round of France’s parliamentary elections has not only shocked the political landscape but also ignited protests and urgent calls for strategic alliances to counter the rise of the far right. As France prepares for the crucial second round of voting, the nation remains on edge, with the future political direction hanging in the balance.
