Former South African President Jacob Zuma is emerging as a significant victor in the country’s general elections. His newly formed uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) Party appears poised for substantial gains, challenging the long-standing dominance of the African National Congress (ANC). For the first time since the end of apartheid, the ANC is set to lose its majority, marking a dramatic setback. On Wednesday, May 29, 2024, Zuma was seen waving to supporters after casting his ballot in Nkandla, KwaZulu Natal. The elections, viewed as South Africa’s most crucial in 30 years, reflect a growing dissatisfaction with the ANC among the country’s 62 million citizens. With more than 90 percent of votes counted, the MK Party is leading in KwaZulu Natal, a province where the ANC has never previously lost.
Nationally, the MK Party stands third with approximately 13 percent of the vote, trailing behind the ANC at about 41 percent and the principal opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), at 21 percent. This shift indicates that the MK Party has managed to attract a significant portion of the ANC’s traditional support base. The ANC has also suffered losses in the provinces of Gauteng and the Western Cape. In Gauteng, the ANC is far from securing a majority, while the DA looks set to retain power in the Western Cape. These results suggest a broader decline in ANC support, signaling the end of its three-decade dominance.
Political analyst Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh described this outcome as the “death of ANC dominance.” He noted that while there is fear and uncertainty about the future, this shift also opens new avenues for change and accountability. Mpofu-Walsh attributed the ANC’s electoral loss to a combination of arrogance and denial of their failures. Sandile Swana, an independent political analyst, compared the ANC’s situation to other liberation movements in Africa, such as Swapo in Namibia and Zanu PF in Zimbabwe, which have been punished for not fulfilling their promises. Imraan Buccus, an academic and researcher, echoed this sentiment, pointing out that the ANC’s failures and an unequal economy contributed to the election outcome.
The World Bank reports that 55 percent of South Africa’s population lives in poverty, and the ANC’s 30 years in power have been marked by increasing unemployment, now at 33 percent. Corruption and government inefficiency have further exacerbated the living conditions in the country. Despite the ANC’s significant loss, other opposition parties have not fully capitalized on this opportunity. The DA showed only marginal gains, with leader John Steenhuisen expressing satisfaction with the party’s slight increase in support. Interestingly, the MK Party also drew support from the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which saw a drop in its numbers. Zuma’s popularity in KwaZulu Natal, both in rural and urban areas, and in parts of Gauteng and Mpumalanga, underscores his enduring influence.
Zuma, a stalwart of the anti-apartheid movement who was ousted from the presidency in 2018 amid corruption allegations, remains a popular figure. His campaign blamed South Africa’s struggles on “white monopoly capital” and criticized his successor, President Cyril Ramaphosa, as an “agent of capital.” Despite his criminal record for contempt of court, Zuma’s populist policies have resonated with many voters. Gwede Mantashe, the ANC’s national chairperson, acknowledged the MK Party’s strong performance in KwaZulu Natal, attributing Zuma’s support to ethnic nationalism. However, Swana argued that Zuma’s appeal transcends identity politics, noting his role in ending post-apartheid violence among the Zulu population in the province.
Zuma’s strategy reflects a global trend of populist leaders gaining support amid dissatisfaction with traditional parties. Buccus cited examples like former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and former Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, suggesting that people seek alternatives when faced with government failures.
As the ANC faces the possibility of forming a coalition government for the first time, it has already begun informal talks with potential partners. Mantashe admitted that the party had not planned for this outcome but acknowledged that coalitions are now a necessary consequence.
The MK Party, however, has ruled out any coalition with the ANC. Other opposition parties are waiting for the final results before making any decisions. According to South African law, a president must be elected within 14 days after the Electoral Commission announces the election results. Mpofu-Walsh predicted that South Africa’s political landscape would be “noisy and unstable” in the coming days. The full implications of the ANC’s decline will unfold over time, but it is clear that the country’s political terrain is entering a new and uncertain phase.
