US peace efforts strained by Israeli actions have become increasingly evident in recent weeks, as the United States finds itself in a precarious position in the Middle East. Recent events have highlighted the growing tension between US diplomatic goals and Israel’s military operations, potentially drawing the US into a wider conflict it claims to want to avoid.
Following an attack that killed 12 people in the occupied Golan Heights, White House official John Kirby reaffirmed US support for Israel while emphasizing Washington’s desire for regional de-escalation. “We believe that there is still time and space for a diplomatic solution,” Kirby stated, as speculation grew about Israel’s next move and the possibility of a full-scale regional war.
The US has publicly stated its opposition to such an outcome, despite sending forces to the Middle East after the October 7 attack on Israel and the subsequent war on Gaza. Throughout the conflict, there have been several tense moments that threatened wider escalation, including Israel’s killing of two Iranian generals at Tehran’s consulate in Damascus in April, followed by Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel.
Reports suggest that the US has worked to restrain Israel from further escalation and from launching a full-scale attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Additionally, the US has been involved in mediating ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, though progress has been slow.
The recent assassinations of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut have dealt a significant blow to US objectives of achieving a ceasefire and regional de-escalation. Brian Finucane, a senior adviser with the International Crisis Group’s US Program, told Al Jazeera that regional de-escalation would ultimately emerge after a ceasefire in Gaza. Without one, the potential for an expanded conflict involving US forces in the region remains high.
Many observers feel that the US could do more to achieve a ceasefire in a conflict where its ally Israel has killed almost 40,000 Palestinians, threatening to ignite an already volatile region. Raed Jarrar, advocacy director at Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), stated, “We haven’t really seen the US push for de-escalation – US policy contradicts US actions. The US could have enforced these kinds of principles of de-escalation and ceasefire easily by stopping the transfer of weapons, which would have led to a ceasefire months ago.”
After Haniyeh’s assassination, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the US government “was not aware of or involved in” the killing, which came days after Netanyahu visited the US. This statement raised questions about US leadership in the region and Israel’s apparent disregard for US objectives.
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, a US foreign policy think tank, noted that even if the US wasn’t aware of the assassination, regional perceptions might differ, especially given recent negotiations between the Mossad and CIA heads regarding a ceasefire.
The situation is further complicated by the approaching US presidential election, which will see a transition to a new president after Biden’s decision not to run. Analysts suggest this uncertainty works in Netanyahu’s favor, as he may face more pressure to end the war under a potential Kamala Harris presidency.
The ongoing conflict and US support for Israel have affected America’s standing in the region. Jarrar pointed out, “Since October 7, blind US support for Israel has definitely affected the US’s standing in the region and its ability to have influence. The US has failed completely to show any kind of leadership.”
Finucane highlighted the “fundamental conundrum” faced by the US, which has backed Israel with military power and support to deter Iran and its allies, “but at the same time wanted to avoid a regional escalation.” He emphasized the need for the US to “have a fundamental rethink about what it is going to do to bring about a ceasefire – what is it going to do to de-escalate the region beyond mere rhetoric.”
The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US presidential election adds another layer of complexity to the situation. Analysts suggest that Netanyahu may be leveraging this uncertainty to his advantage, potentially delaying any significant changes in Israeli policy until after the election.
As US peace efforts strained by Israeli actions continue to dominate the geopolitical landscape, the Biden administration faces mounting pressure to reconcile its support for Israel with its stated goals of achieving a ceasefire and regional de-escalation. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether the US can effectively navigate this complex diplomatic landscape and prevent a wider conflict in the Middle East.
