As we reflect on the Taliban’s three years in power, it’s crucial to analyze the regime’s consolidation of authority, its impact on Afghan society, and the challenges that lie ahead. Since regaining control in August 2021, the Taliban has reshaped Afghanistan’s political landscape, economy, and international relations. This article delves into the key aspects of the Taliban’s rule and explores potential future scenarios for the country.

Consolidation of Power and Governance Structures

The Taliban’s supreme leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada, has strengthened his grip on power by centralizing authority and creating parallel institutions. His Kandahar-based office has become the epicenter of policy formulation, supported by a loyal cadre of military commanders from southern Afghanistan. To counter potential rivals within the Taliban, Akhundzada has strategically appointed his loyalists to key positions across various ministries and agencies.

The regime’s approach to governance has been exclusionary, favoring southern Pashtun Talibs and marginalizing other ethnic groups and former political actors. This has led to the removal or demotion of several non-Pashtun Taliban commanders. To maintain some semblance of local representation, the Taliban has established religious ulama councils at the local level, which help monitor local actors and resolve disputes.

Human rights, particularly women’s rights, have suffered severe setbacks under Taliban rule. The regime has implemented a form of gender apartheid, banning girls’ education beyond primary school and severely restricting women’s participation in public life and the workforce. Despite these harsh policies, there has been some resistance at the local level, with communities and some Taliban officials slow-walking the implementation of the most extreme edicts.

Economic Challenges and Regime Viability

The Taliban’s three years in power have been marked by significant economic challenges. Western sanctions, a liquidity crisis, and the collapse of the war-dependent economic system led to a staggering 20-30% contraction of Afghanistan’s GDP between 2021 and 2023. While the economy has since stabilized, it remains stagnant, with over half the population requiring humanitarian support.

Despite these challenges, the Taliban regime has shown surprising resilience. Their effectiveness in reducing corruption has boosted tax and revenue income. Afghanistan has also benefited from regional trade, particularly in coal and mineral exports. However, the Taliban’s ban on opium poppy cultivation, while reducing corruption, has had severe economic consequences, wiping out hundreds of thousands of jobs and costing the economy billions.

The regime’s economic policies have created a complex situation where powerful Taliban figures benefit from certain measures, such as the increased value of heroin stockpiles, while the general population suffers from increased poverty and food insecurity. This economic imbalance could potentially lead to internal rifts within the Taliban leadership in the future.

Regional Relations and International Engagement

In the three years since taking power, the Taliban has seen increasing engagement from regional powers and Afghanistan’s neighbors. Countries like China, Russia, and Iran have intensified their relations with the regime, albeit without formal recognition. China, in particular, has accepted the Taliban ambassador in Beijing and is exploring economic opportunities in Afghanistan.

Regional infrastructure projects, such as the TAPI gas pipeline and the CASA-1000 electricity project, are being revived with Taliban participation. Even countries initially hostile to the regime, like Tajikistan, are finding ways to engage pragmatically. India, despite its reservations, maintains a low-level relationship with the Taliban to monitor potential terrorist activities.

The Taliban’s approach to terrorism remains a key concern for the region and the United States. While the regime has shown determination in combating the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP), it has been less effective in addressing other terrorist groups, particularly the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). This has strained relations with Pakistan, a former supporter of the Taliban.

As we look back on the Taliban’s three years in power, it’s clear that the regime has established a firm grip on Afghanistan, despite facing numerous challenges. The Taliban’s governance style, characterized by centralized authority and strict interpretation of Islamic law, has reshaped Afghan society, often at the cost of human rights and economic progress. Looking ahead, the regime’s ability to address internal divisions, economic hardships, and international concerns will be crucial in determining Afghanistan’s future trajectory.

The international community, particularly the United States, faces a delicate balancing act in its engagement with the Taliban. While concerns about human rights and terrorism persist, a pragmatic approach focused on limited engagement and targeted objectives may prove more effective than complete isolation. As the Taliban enters its fourth year in power, the world watches closely to see how the regime will navigate the complex challenges that lie ahead and what this means for the Afghan people and regional stability.