South Africa is gearing up for one of its most closely contested general elections since the end of apartheid, with nearly 30 million citizens set to vote amidst high unemployment and crime rates. For the first time in 30 years, the African National Congress (ANC) faces the prospect of losing its majority.
The upcoming election on May 29 will be the nation’s seventh democratic general election since Nelson Mandela’s presidency began in 1994. South Africans will vote for representatives in both national and provincial parliaments. Voters will cast three ballots: one for political parties to fill 200 National Assembly seats, another for “province-to-national” candidates to fill the remaining 200 seats, and a third for provincial legislature members. The 400 National Assembly members will elect the president within 30 days of the election.
The ANC has maintained power since 1994, but its popularity has waned due to economic challenges and high crime rates. Although average incomes rose during the ANC’s three-decade rule, they have declined since 2011. The World Bank reports that South Africa has the highest unemployment rate globally, and crime remains rampant, with high rates of murder and rape.
The ANC’s main opposition is the center-right Democratic Alliance (DA), led by John Steenhuisen. The DA, which emerged from the liberal white benches of the old apartheid parliament, aims to privatize parts of the economy, create two million jobs, and reduce violent crime. Steenhuisen has indicated a willingness to form a coalition with the ANC if necessary.
The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), led by former ANC youth leader Julius Malema, is the third largest party. The EFF seeks to address racial imbalances from apartheid, advocating for land redistribution and the nationalization of key economic sectors like mines and banks.
Former President Jacob Zuma, who leads the MK Party, adds another layer of complexity. Despite being banned from running due to his criminal conviction, Zuma remains a significant figure in the party’s campaign.
Recent polls suggest the ANC might secure less than 50% of the vote for the first time, potentially forcing it into coalition negotiations. South Africa’s constitution does not explicitly outline how such coalitions should function, but smaller parties might support the government on a vote-by-vote basis in exchange for concessions. Alternatively, the ANC could form a formal coalition with other parties.
If the ANC remains the largest party, Cyril Ramaphosa is likely to continue as president unless internal challenges arise due to a perceived poor performance. Steenhuisen and the DA hope to gain sufficient support through a coalition of smaller parties to replace Ramaphosa. Malema’s EFF, advocating for Marxist policies and significant economic reforms, also aims to increase its influence.
Election results are typically released by South Africa’s electoral commission within hours of polls closing, with full results announced within seven days by law. This election could mark a significant shift in South Africa’s political landscape, reflecting the country’s evolving economic and social dynamics.
