Two Air Strikes by Iran:
Iran launched missiles into Iraq and Syria, targeting alleged ISIL (ISIS) positions. In Erbil, Iraq, a Mossad facility was claimed to be hit, resulting in at least four deaths. On Tuesday, Iran fired missiles into Pakistan’s Balochistan province, aiming at the separatist group Jaish al-Adl, causing the death of at least two children. In retaliation, Pakistan launched attacks on Thursday, resulting in at least nine casualties in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province, near the border.
Concerns of Regional Escalation:
Iran launched rapid attacks on Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan this week, raising concerns of regional escalation. The timing of Tehran’s cross-border strikes, amid Israel’s war on Gaza, prompts questions about Iran’s decision.
Despite seemingly unrelated targets, analysts suggest a common thread in Iran’s actions, driven by rising threat perceptions and the need to respond to domestic and external pressures.
In late December, Israel killed Sayyed Razi Mousavi, a top Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander in Syria, further influencing Iran’s actions.
Deadliest Attack on Iran:
At start of the year two explosions at the memorial of Iran’s late IRGC chief Qassem Soleimani in Kerman killed at least 90 civilians. Soleimani was assassinated in a U.S. drone strike two years prior. ISIL in Afghanistan claimed the bombing, but Iran accused the group of collaborating with Israel.
Recent Iranian attacks targeted ISIL’s alleged facilities in northern Syria and Erbil, Iraq. Last month, Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility for a police station attack in Rask, Iran, killing 11 security personnel.
Iran’s Weak Intelligence:
Analyst Hamidreza Azizi notes that a series of incidents projected Iran’s intelligence weakness and lack of will to respond. Tehran may have calculated that allowing this perception to persist would jeopardize its credibility.
The decision to respond on multiple fronts simultaneously was aimed at showcasing strength. Analysts caution against conflating events on the Pakistan border with those in Gaza.
Pakistan and Iran:
Iran and Pakistan have a history of accusing each other of allowing armed groups into their territories. Despite such accusations, the countries have maintained military and diplomatic ties for years.
On the day of Iran’s attack on Pakistan, the two nations were conducting joint naval operations. Images of Iran’s foreign minister shaking hands with Pakistan’s caretaker prime minister were posted just before the Iranian strike.
Speculation about prearranged and coordinated strikes emerged from anonymous Telegram messages. Some messages suggested the attacks were initially planned for the previous week.
However, analysts caution against believing this interpretation due to Pakistan’s international position. Pakistan is wary of damaging its relationship with India, its longstanding nuclear rival. Analyst Abdolrasool Divsallar believes the escalation is likely to remain limited and constrained.
Offers From China:
China, a crucial ally of both Iran and Pakistan, has offered to mediate in the situation. Both countries are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), providing diplomatic platforms. The attack on a nuclear power aimed to convey clear messages to the United States and its allies, especially Israel.
Analysts suggest the attack had internal motivations as well. The credibility and prestige of the Islamic republic were already declining, even among its own supporters. Preserving the remaining support, particularly from hardliners, has become imperative, according to Azizi.
Limited Conflict:
The recent strikes by Iran on Pakistan may have limited but not non-existent chances of contributing to a greater regional conflict. A day after Pakistan’s retaliation, both sides have not engaged in further military action. Striking a friendly nuclear power, Iran has sent a message that will resonate beyond Balochistan.
