By the end of this month, India will have about 1.43 billion people, surpassing an ageing China as the world’s most populous nation.
The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs stated in a statement on Monday that by the end of this month, India’s population is anticipated to reach 1,425,775,850, matching and then surpassing that of mainland China.
The milestone will be reached by the middle of 2023, when it will have 2.9 million more people than China, according to the UN’s annual State of the World Population report published last week.
The Indian government has not formally commented on the UN estimations despite the fact that it has not conducted a census since 2011 and has postponed the 2021 one because of the pandemic.
According to John Wilmoth, chief of the UN population division, at a press conference held at UN headquarters in New York City, the timing of when India surpasses China in population would probably be altered once India performs its next census.
The exact moment of this crossover is unknown and will never be discovered, according to Wilmoth. “The data are not completely certain.”
China and India are close neighbours with a complicated relationship that includes strong trade ties and a protracted border conflict. India, the largest democracy in the world, is increasingly seen by the United States and its allies as a counterweight to China.
But sometimes their interests are at odds. Contrary to many of the West, India has chosen to take a neutral posture towards its Cold War ally Russia’s involvement in the conflict in Ukraine, even as India’s purchases of Russian oil have increased.
The demographic milestone makes people wonder if India will be able to achieve the same economic success that has made China the world’s largest economy and a preeminent global power.
As the host of the Group of 20 summit this year, India is portraying itself as a rising world power at the time the news breaks. Additionally, it is growing in popularity as a location for global corporations looking to lessen their dependency on China.
According to observers, India has the potential to mimic China’s economic trajectory due to its immense size and young population.
However, the population of China reached a peak in 2022 and has since begun to decline. The UN predicted that its population could fall below 1 billion by the end of the century. As the birth rate continues to decline, from 1.7 births per woman in 2017 to 1.2 in 2022, the country’s old population is growing.
In contrast, India has the biggest proportion of young people in the world, a greater fertility rate, and a steady decline in infant mortality.
The country’s fertility rate has been slowly declining, from more than five children per woman in the 1960s to two in 2022, prompting experts to issue a warning against panic over overpopulation. Around 2064, India’s population is predicted to stop increasing and stable.
India’s $3 trillion economy is the fifth largest in the world today because to historic reforms that sparked phenomenal growth in the 1990s and the rise of its high-skilled industries.
But India’s economy continues to lag significantly behind that of China. According to 2021 World Bank data, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) is $12,556 per person, compared to India’s $2,256. In 1970, the two nations had roughly identical per capita incomes.
The issue facing Prime Minister Narendra Modi to create jobs for the millions of young people who enter the job market each year is highlighted in Surpassing China.
Due to its enormous population, India faces a number of issues that are magnified by its size, including the growing threat of climate change, inequities between its rural and urban populations, a decline in the number of women in the workforce, and a developing religious difference.
Given that many of its huge cities are already experiencing water shortages, air and water pollution, and crowded slums, India also confronts enormous hurdles in supplying electricity, food, and housing for its expanding population.
