A recent survey conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) reveals that Europeans generally express openness to the idea of Ukraine joining the European Union (EU). However, this sentiment is not echoed when it comes to the potential enlargement of the EU to include Georgia and countries in the western Balkans.
The European Commission’s recommendation to initiate formal accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova has heightened discussions on enlargement within the EU. As the EU’s 27 heads of government convene for a summit in Brussels this week, the survey sheds light on public attitudes towards these developments.
The ECFR survey, conducted in six EU member states, indicates considerable support for Ukraine’s candidacy, with Denmark and Poland showing the highest levels of support at 50% and 47%, respectively. Romania, Germany, and France exhibit more divided opinions. However, Austria leans towards opposition, with 52% against Ukraine’s entry.
Despite the openness, the survey identifies deep economic and security concerns. Forty-five percent of respondents express concerns about the negative impact of Ukraine’s accession on the EU’s security, while only 25% believe it would enhance security. Economic benefits are also contested, with varying opinions across countries.
Interestingly, the survey reveals a clear divide between “old” and “new” EU member states regarding the broader principle of enlargement. Austria, Germany, and France are more likely to oppose admitting new members, while Romania and Poland express a willingness to expand the EU.
The survey also gauges opinions on potential EU membership for other countries, including Moldova, Montenegro, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, and Serbia. The results indicate overall coolness towards these prospects, with Turkey facing strong opposition.
As the summit unfolds, the debate on enlargement gains prominence, with the ECFR calling for a concrete timeline for accession. The survey suggests a need for internal EU reforms and greater clarity on the path forward to address widespread skepticism and concerns within member states. The decisions made at this summit may shape the future trajectory of EU expansion and its geopolitical influence.
