In a significant diplomatic development, Azerbaijan and Armenia appear to be on the verge of reaching a peace agreement to end their long-standing conflict. The recent lightning offensive by Azerbaijan in September to gain control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which had been under the influence of ethnic Armenian forces since a war in the 1990s, prompted swift diplomatic efforts to stabilize relations and recognize each other’s borders.
Escalation of Tensions and Humanitarian Crisis:
The conflict led to a decisive military advance by Azerbaijan, resulting in the displacement of over 100,000 people from the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, characterized the offensive as an act of ethnic cleansing, an accusation Azerbaijan vehemently denied. The region was left largely deserted, setting the stage for intensified diplomatic talks between the two nations.
Diplomatic Efforts and Prisoner Exchange:
To demonstrate goodwill, Azerbaijan and Armenia engaged in a rare act of cooperation by swapping prisoners of war on December 13. This gesture marked one of the first joint statements without the mediation of a third party. The meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan on December 26 in St. Petersburg further raised hopes for a breakthrough in the peace negotiations.
Drafting the Peace Agreement:
Both nations have exchanged seven drafts of a potential peace agreement, and Azerbaijan is currently awaiting Armenia’s response to its comments on the latest draft proposals. The draft outlines five key principles, including mutual respect for territorial integrity, sovereignty, and internationally recognized borders. Other elements involve the rejection of territorial claims, adherence to the UN Charter, and the delimitation of the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, a task left unresolved for three decades.
Challenges and Complexities:
Despite the progress, challenges remain in the negotiation process. The issue of border demarcation, especially concerning the linkage between Azerbaijan and its exclave of Nakhichevan, poses a significant hurdle. Azerbaijan emphasizes the importance of a secure connection between the two parts for national security and to ensure an alternative route for the proposed “middle corridor,” a critical transport route from China to Europe.
Global Geostrategic Dynamics:
The Nagorno-Karabakh region holds immense geostrategic importance, attracting attention from global powers such as Turkey, Russia, Iran, the US, and the EU. The proposed “middle corridor” is a strategic transportation route connecting China to Europe through central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the south Caucasus. The diplomatic maneuvering by these nations adds complexity to the negotiations.
As Azerbaijan and Armenia navigate the complexities of their peace negotiations, the international community watches closely. The potential resolution of the long-standing conflict carries implications beyond regional stability, affecting global geopolitical dynamics. The recent bilateral talks and exchanged drafts signify a crucial juncture in the quest for peace, offering hope for a historic agreement that could reshape the geopolitical landscape of the south Caucasus.
