The recent military escalation in South Asia, culminating in Operation Sindoor—India’s large-scale airstrikes targeting multiple sites across Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir—cannot be seen as an isolated event. Instead, it is the latest development in a protracted and complex conflict, whose roots trace directly to a seismic political shift undertaken by India in August 2019: the unilateral revocation of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution.
Background: Article 370 and Kashmir’s Unique Status
Article 370 granted Jammu and Kashmir special autonomous status within India, allowing it to maintain its own constitution, flag, and significant legislative independence. It was a constitutional recognition of the region’s disputed status, intended as a temporary provision until Kashmir’s future could be determined through a plebiscite under UN resolutions.
On August 5, 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government abrogated Article 370 by a presidential order, bypassing local political consent and dissolving Jammu and Kashmir into two federally controlled union territories. The move was met with both internal and external backlash.
Domestically, the Indian government justified this decision as necessary to end terrorism, promote development, and integrate Kashmir more fully into India’s national framework. Internationally, the decision was widely condemned as a violation of international law and a breach of UN Security Council resolutions recognizing Kashmir as a disputed territory awaiting self-determination.
The Aftermath: Repression and Rising Tensions
Following the revocation, Kashmir experienced one of the most stringent lockdowns in recent history. Communications were cut off for months; political leaders were arrested or placed under house arrest; and a heavy military presence was imposed throughout the region.
The human cost was significant. Reports of civilian casualties, human rights abuses, and suppression of dissent emerged from Kashmir. These actions deepened resentment among Kashmiris and hardened Pakistan’s stance, as Islamabad declared the revocation illegal and vowed to raise the issue internationally.
Trade, cultural exchange, and diplomatic ties between India and Pakistan deteriorated rapidly, with Pakistan suspending bilateral talks and enhancing support for Kashmiri groups opposing Indian control.
The Terrorist Attack and India’s Retaliation
On April 22, 2025, a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, killed 26 civilians and injured dozens more. India attributed the attack to Pakistan-based militant groups, arguing that Islamabad continues to harbor and support terrorism against India.
In response, India launched Operation Sindoor on May 7, 2025—a series of coordinated pre-dawn airstrikes against nine locations inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, believed to be terrorist training camps and infrastructure. Targets included strategic locations such as Muridke, Bahawalpur, and Muzaffarabad.
The strikes involved the use of sophisticated weaponry, including BrahMos cruise missiles and precision-guided bombs, signaling a significant escalation in India’s tactical capabilities and willingness to carry out cross-border operations.
India framed the operation as “focused, measured, and non-escalatory,” emphasizing its intent to neutralize terrorist threats without igniting a broader conflict. Nevertheless, the operation resulted in civilian casualties—at least eight killed and dozens wounded—and provoked a swift military response from Pakistan, including claims of shooting down five Indian jets.
Beyond Military Action: Water Disputes and Economic Warfare
In addition to kinetic operations, emerging reports suggest India has taken steps to restrict or divert water flows from rivers governed by the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)—a 1960 bilateral agreement that regulates water sharing between India and Pakistan.
Pakistan has accused India of initiating “water aggression,” threatening its agriculture, economy, and civilian livelihoods. Should these claims be confirmed, this development would add a new and alarming dimension to the conflict, turning it from a primarily military and territorial dispute into an environmental and economic crisis.
The Indus Waters Treaty has long been regarded as a rare example of cooperation between the two nations despite hostility. Its potential unraveling would severely impact regional stability.
Regional and Global Implications
The legacy of the 2019 Kashmir decision and the subsequent escalation has broader implications for South Asian security. The India-Pakistan rivalry is one of the most dangerous in the world, involving two nuclear-armed states with a history of multiple wars and proxy conflicts.
The recent military exchanges and emerging multi-domain confrontations risk destabilizing the already fragile peace. Civilians on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC) face displacement, casualties, and disruptions to daily life.
Internationally, there have been calls from the United Nations, United States, China, Russia, and other global actors urging restraint and dialogue. However, diplomatic efforts have struggled to gain traction amid deep mistrust and nationalist rhetoric.
The Road Ahead: Can Diplomacy Prevail?
Operation Sindoor and the 2019 abrogation of Article 370 are part of a continuum that reflects shifting power dynamics and deep-rooted grievances in Kashmir. The Modi government’s policy has hardened India’s position but also intensified regional instability.
For peace to return, India and Pakistan must return to meaningful dialogue—recognizing Kashmir’s complex history and the legitimate aspirations of its people. Both nations bear responsibility for avoiding further escalation that could spiral into full-scale conflict.
The international community must also play a more active role, not merely urging restraint but facilitating inclusive negotiations that respect international law and human rights.
The crisis unfolding today on the India-Pakistan border is a direct consequence of political decisions made six years ago, coupled with ongoing failures to address the Kashmir dispute peacefully. Operation Sindoor is a symptom of a larger, systemic problem—a conflict rooted in contested sovereignty, historical grievances, and unresolved diplomatic challenges.
Without urgent and sustained efforts toward dialogue and reconciliation, South Asia risks slipping into a prolonged cycle of violence with devastating consequences for millions.
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