The European Parliament has undergone a significant shift to the right following the recent four day elections. This change brings an increase in eurosceptic nationalists and a decrease in mainstream liberals and Greens. The parliament, responsible for reviewing and approving new legislation, will now face the task of negotiating and agreeing on amendments with EU governments before regulations or directives can come into force. Additionally, the EU assembly will play a crucial role in approving the next president of the European Commission, likely to be the incumbent Ursula von der Leyen, along with 26 other commissioners. Here are five key areas that could be impacted by this rightward shift in the European Parliament.
Climate Policy
The next five years are pivotal for Europe to achieve its 2030 climate change targets. The EU has spent the past five years passing comprehensive clean energy and CO2 reduction laws, which will be challenging to reverse. However, a more climate-sceptical EU Parliament might attempt to introduce loopholes to weaken these laws, especially as many are due for review in the coming years. This includes the controversial 2035 phase-out of new combustion engine car sales, which faced criticism during the EU election campaign, even from von der Leyen’s centre-right political group. Additionally, the parliament will negotiate a new, legally binding target to cut emissions by 2040, setting the stage for future policies to curb emissions across various sectors, from farming to manufacturing and transport.
Defence and Ukraine
Foreign and defence policies primarily fall under the jurisdiction of the EU’s member countries, not the European Parliament. Thus, the election results should not immediately impact EU support for Ukraine or military matters. Exit polls predict that centre, liberal, and socialist parties will retain a majority in the 720-seat parliament, albeit losing some 28 seats. However, the parliament will influence plans to foster pan-European cooperation on defence projects and encourage governments to purchase more European military equipment. The European Commission’s Defence Industrial Programme, which aims to achieve these goals, requires the consent of both EU governments and the European Parliament. Gains for parties opposing greater European integration may complicate these ambitions, and for the Commission’s plans to be effective, they will need substantial funding from the next long-term EU budget, which must also be approved by the parliament.
Trade Policy
The European Parliament plays a critical role in approving free trade agreements before they can take effect, although it is not directly involved in trade defence measures like imposing tariffs. The European Commission and some EU leaders argue for more trade agreements with reliable partners to compensate for lost business with Russia and reduce dependence on China. Several trade agreements await approval, including those with Mexico and the South American bloc Mercosur, while the European Commission seeks deals with countries like Australia. Pushing these agreements through parliament could become more challenging with the increased presence of nationalist eurosceptics who have opposed such deals, particularly the Mercosur agreement.
Relations with China and the US
The European Commission insists that the EU needs to present a united front against major rivals like China and the United States, especially if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House. It also emphasizes the need for a clear unified industrial strategy to maintain the EU’s position as a major industrial base for green and digital goods amid massive subsidies from rivals. Critics argue that the nationalist right-wing parties advocate for a more fragmented Europe, which would struggle to address these challenges effectively.
Enlargement and Reform
Before admitting new countries, particularly large ones like Ukraine, the EU must reform its internal agricultural policy and support mechanisms to equalize living standards among members. The current system of transfers is already viewed as too costly. To admit new members such as Ukraine, Moldova, and Western Balkan countries, the EU will also need to change its decision-making processes, reducing the requirement for unanimity, which has become increasingly difficult to achieve. If such reforms are proposed in the next five years, the parliament will play a crucial role in shaping them. A stronger voice for the far-right, which opposes deeper EU integration, could significantly impact these discussions.
In summary, the rightward shift in the European Parliament could affect a range of policy areas over the next five years, from climate and trade to defence and EU enlargement. The implications of this shift will unfold as the new parliament begins its term, navigating complex legislative and geopolitical landscapes.
