US President Joe Biden has announced an Israeli peace plan aimed at establishing a ceasefire in Gaza. In a background briefing on 31 May, journalists learned that the plan closely mirrors previous agreements proposed by Hamas. If successful, it would mark a significant step towards ending a conflict that has resulted in over 36,000 Palestinian deaths, mostly women and children, and has incited global outrage. The plan involves three phases. The first phase calls for a six-week ceasefire, during which the Israeli army would withdraw from Gaza’s populated areas. Hostages, including the elderly and women, would be exchanged for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, and 600 trucks of humanitarian aid would be sent daily to Gaza. The second phase involves negotiations between Hamas and Israel for a permanent end to hostilities. During this time, the ceasefire would remain in effect. The third phase would implement a permanent ceasefire and initiate the reconstruction of Gaza, focusing on clinics, schools, universities, and religious buildings damaged by Israeli forces. Hamas has responded positively to the proposal, without providing detailed comments. The plan has also garnered support from some Israeli politicians, captive families, and the international community. Benny Gantz, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s main rival, has endorsed the proposal and urged the war cabinet to discuss the next steps. Opposition leader Yair Lapid has also pledged support, contingent on the withdrawal of support from far-right parties.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, along with allies like the United Kingdom and Germany, have backed the plan. However, significant opposition exists within the Israeli cabinet. Netanyahu has dismissed any initiative that does not include the “elimination” of Hamas’s capacity to govern and wage war as a “non-starter.” This stance contrasts with the Biden administration’s view that Hamas’s military capabilities have been sufficiently degraded to prevent another attack like that of October 7. Ultranationalist and far-right members of Netanyahu’s coalition, including Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, have threatened to withdraw from the government if the proposals are accepted, potentially causing its collapse. The parliamentary arithmetic suggests that Netanyahu, reliant on the far-right bloc’s 14 seats compared to Gantz’s eight, may lean towards rejecting the plan despite Lapid’s 17-seat offer of support for the peace proposal.
The families of captives taken from Israel and held in Gaza are pressuring the government to accept the deal, as are some political factions within Israel. However, the strong opposition to the plan means its acceptance is uncertain. Hamas’s spokesperson in Lebanon, Osama Hamdan, indicated that Hamas has yet to receive a written proposal from the US and will wait for a response from its leadership in Gaza, including Yahya Sinwar, before making a decision. The origins of the proposal are somewhat unclear, as Biden framed it as an Israeli initiative. However, it closely resembles a plan proposed by Israel and agreed upon by Hamas in late April, suggesting it may be a signal from the US to halt the conflict.
Regardless of the plan’s fate, the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains dire. Over one million people have fled Rafah amid ongoing Israeli assaults. The UN reports that healthcare facilities are struggling due to shortages of fuel and supplies. Previous negotiations have stalled, but Israeli and US negotiators are set to reconvene in Cairo to discuss reopening the Rafah crossing, which could address some humanitarian issues in southern Gaza. In conclusion, Biden’s Gaza peace plan presents a potential path to ceasefire and reconstruction, but its success hinges on overcoming significant political opposition within Israel and securing Hamas’s agreement. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza adds urgency to the need for a resolution. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether this plan can move forward and bring much-needed relief to the region.
